Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
HSBC options intelligence
HSBC Holdings PLC ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 22:22 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
HSBC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.84.
Expected move
2.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.84
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.15
Call-side skew
Trend fit
38
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.9%
RS 23.2
Expected move
2.3%
Put-call volume
0.15
Volume / OI
0.84
Reference IV
0.35
Max pain
108.00
Underlying
106.42
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
364
Research Brief
HSBC has a bullish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 104.02–108.82; The largest call open-interest concentration is 109.00; the largest put concentration is 108.00. The most active strike by current volume is 108.00.
Priced range104.02–108.82
Call concentration109.00
Put concentration108.00
Max pain reference108.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 104.02 to 108.82. Max pain at 108.00 sits inside that range, 1.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
104.02106.42 ± 2.40108.82
Confirmation level
A close beyond 108.82 or below 104.02 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 63/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure63 × 42%
+26.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation60 × 22%
+13.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement38 × 26%
+9.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 109.00; the largest put concentration is 108.00. The most active strike by current volume is 108.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
17
95.00-10.7%
0
39
96.00-9.8%
0
52
97.00-8.9%
13
44
98.00-7.9%
11
13
99.00-7.0%
1
26
100.00-6.0%
14
34
101.00-5.1%
6
33
102.00-4.2%
9
59
103.00-3.2%
9
5
104.00-2.3%
11
9
105.00-1.3%
19
9
106.00-0.4%
79
99
107.000.5%
70
364
108.001.5%
225
1
109.002.4%
243
1
110.003.4%
11
0
114.007.1%
9
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$183,744Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak100.00+$632,678
Negative peak80.00-$543,195
Nearest balance106.58Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
96.00-9.8%
-$17,688
97.00-8.9%
-$34,205
98.00-7.9%
-$22,094
99.00-7.0%
-$28,647
100.00-6.0%
+$632,678
101.00-5.1%
-$34,137
102.00-4.2%
+$62,720
103.00-3.2%
-$23,800
104.00-2.3%
+$9,407
105.00-1.3%
+$544,894
106.00-0.4%
+$76,228
107.000.5%
-$54,625
108.001.5%
-$109,211
109.002.4%
+$284,935
110.003.4%
+$474,339
111.004.3%
+$47,966
112.005.2%
+$496
113.006.2%
+$884
114.007.1%
+$3,479
115.008.1%
+$37,163
117.009.9%
+$4,665
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.35
7 Aug
3d
0.42
14 Aug
10d
0.28
21 Aug
17d
0.31
28 Aug
24d
0.41
4 Sep
31d
0.30
11 Sep
38d
0.28
18 Sep
45d
0.29
18 Dec
136d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
88
89
90
93
94
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
108
109
110
114
119
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move2.9%
30 Jul
Bearish · 46
2.9% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 364 / 364
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $251.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+63
1W price+2.9%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.84
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
38/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 46263 contracts traded, $244.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 97% of visible notional.
$244.2M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 3387 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 507 contracts traded, $1.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1.9M
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 2216 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 560 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close106.42
1W+2.9%
RS23.2
Fair value+96.4%
Options pressure63
Speculation60
Volatility34
Trend fit38
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 18:35
Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 2.9%
29 Jul 18:59
Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 2.1%
29 Jul 19:20
Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 2.3%
29 Jul 19:41
Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 2.6%
29 Jul 23:03
Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 2.0%
30 Jul 13:52
Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 4.2%
30 Jul 14:20
Bullish
Pressure 73
Move 4.4%
30 Jul 14:41
Bullish
Pressure 71
Move 4.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike88.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike89.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike93.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike94.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 5 · OI 5
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 17
Strike96.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 39
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.72
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts31
Avg IV0.42
Put-call17.07
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.28
Put-call1.14
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.31
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.53
Skew0.09
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.62
Skew0.05
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.32
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.36
Skew0.05
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.66
Skew0.34
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractHSBC260821C00109000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike109.00
Volume-
OI45
IV0.27
ContractHSBC260821P00096000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike96.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.39
ContractHSBC261218C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI19
IV0.00
ContractHSBC260814C00111000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike111.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.57
ContractHSBC270115C00135000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.35
ContractHSBC260904P00085000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.66
ContractHSBC280121P00105000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike105.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.31
ContractHSBC260814P00094000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike94.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.71
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.