Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MTCH options intelligence
Match Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:49 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MTCH currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
11.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.35
Put-side skew
Trend fit
98
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+4.0%
RS 5.9
Expected move
11.7%
Put-call volume
1.35
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.57
Max pain
37.50
Underlying
37.91
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
130
Research Brief
MTCH has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 33.48–42.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 42.50; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.
Priced range33.48–42.34
Call concentration42.50
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference37.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 33.48 to 42.34. Max pain at 37.50 sits inside that range, 1.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
33.4837.91 ± 4.4342.34
Confirmation level
A close beyond 42.34 or below 33.48 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 9/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure9 × 42%
+3.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 × 22%
+3.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility80 × 10%
+8.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 42.50; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
15
20.00-47.2%
0
1
22.50-40.6%
0
11
25.00-34.1%
0
28
27.50-27.5%
0
25
30.00-20.9%
46
335
32.50-14.3%
11
645
35.00-7.7%
156
509
37.50-1.1%
1005
49
40.005.5%
813
0
42.5012.1%
4372
11
45.0018.7%
575
0
47.5025.3%
69
0
50.0031.9%
18
0
55.0045.1%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.57
21 Aug
21d
0.50
18 Sep
49d
0.44
18 Dec
140d
0.42
15 Jan
168d
0.46
19 Mar
231d
0.43
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
33
35
38
40
43
45
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 130 / 130
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $749100 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-9
1W price+4.0%
Call premium59%
Put premium41%
Notional split
C 59% / P 41%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
98/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 764 contracts traded, $221485 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$221485
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1098 contracts traded, $198826 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$198826
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 86 contracts traded, $104155 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$104155
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 103 contracts traded, $74548 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$74548
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 51 contracts traded, $64100 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$64100
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close39.41
1W+4.0%
RS5.9
Fair value+18.3%
Options pressure-9
Speculation17
Volatility80
Trend fit98
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:30
Volatility
Pressure 67
Move 11.0%
30 Jul 10:25
Volatility
Pressure -34
Move 12.7%
31 Jul 12:42
Volatility
Pressure -22
Move 12.0%
31 Jul 13:50
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 11.2%
31 Jul 14:49
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 11.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 11
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 28
Strike30.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 46
Puts · V 1 · OI 25
Strike32.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 11
Puts · V 2 · OI 335
Strike35.00
Calls · V 20 · OI 156
Puts · V 2 · OI 645
Strike37.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 1005
Puts · V 16 · OI 509
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.65
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV0.50
Put-call1.39
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.44
Put-call6.21
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts31
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.26
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts9
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.02
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.57
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.50
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.02
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.47
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMTCH280121P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI292
IV0.38
ContractMTCH260821P00020000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI15
IV1.16
ContractMTCH261218C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.48
ContractMTCH270319C00037500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike37.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.45
ContractMTCH260821P00022500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI1
IV2.01
ContractMTCH280121P00042500
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike42.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.57
ContractMTCH270319P00025000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.47
ContractMTCH260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.