Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
VALE options intelligence
Vale SA ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 23:55 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
VALE currently carries bearish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
3.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.51
Put-side skew
Trend fit
86
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+1.8%
RS 0.3
Expected move
3.8%
Put-call volume
1.51
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.34
Max pain
9.00
Underlying
15.06
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
644
Research Brief
VALE has a bearish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.48–15.64; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.
Priced range14.48–15.64
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference9.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 14.48 to 15.64. Max pain at 9.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
14.4815.06 ± 0.5815.64
Confirmation level
A close beyond 15.64 or below 14.48 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 21/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure21 × 42%
+8.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement86 × 26%
+22.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility39 × 10%
+3.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
5.00-66.8%
0
0
8.00-46.9%
2
0
9.00-40.2%
723
0
10.00-33.6%
1
135
11.50-23.6%
0
105
12.00-20.3%
0
147
12.50-17.0%
0
51
13.00-13.7%
102
109
13.50-10.4%
100
65
14.00-7.0%
44
54
14.50-3.7%
122
22
15.00-0.4%
15262
0
15.502.9%
187
2
16.006.2%
195
1
17.0012.9%
35
1
18.0019.5%
0
0
22.0046.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.34
7 Aug
7d
0.53
14 Aug
14d
0.43
21 Aug
21d
0.30
28 Aug
28d
0.31
4 Sep
35d
0.41
11 Sep
42d
0.35
18 Sep
49d
0.34
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 644 / 644
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $840474 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-21
1W price+1.8%
Call premium40%
Put premium60%
Notional split
C 40% / P 60%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
86/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 2786 contracts traded, $254144 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$254144
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 4918 contracts traded, $168277 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$168277
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1889 contracts traded, $120896 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$120896
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 566 contracts traded, $71192 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$71192
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1513 contracts traded, $61109 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$61109
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close15.06
1W+1.8%
RS0.3
Fair value+33.2%
Options pressure-21
Speculation40
Volatility39
Trend fit86
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 3.6%
30 Jul 11:29
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 3.5%
31 Jul 10:02
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 2.3%
31 Jul 14:44
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 1.6%
31 Jul 23:27
Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 0.4%
1 Aug 13:27
Bearish
Pressure -21
Move 3.9%
1 Aug 22:55
Bearish
Pressure -21
Move 3.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 5
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 723
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 135
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 105
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.58
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.53
Put-call15.47
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.31
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.61
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.45
Skew0.20
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.53
Skew0.27
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.50
Skew0.19
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.43
Skew0.19
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.61
Skew0.33
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractVALE260814P00014500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike14.50
Volume4268
OI240
IV0.50
ContractVALE270617P00013000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike13.00
Volume2100
OI6907
IV0.41
ContractVALE260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume1889
OI19862
IV0.26
ContractVALE260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume1359
OI15584
IV0.25
ContractVALE260918P00014000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike14.00
Volume718
OI16295
IV0.39
ContractVALE270115P00012000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.00
Volume586
OI45304
IV0.40
ContractVALE270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume529
OI58540
IV0.26
ContractVALE260807C00015000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume452
OI15262
IV0.27
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.