Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 36.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 36.5%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move +1.5 pts. Data quality 25/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 36.5%
Signal Watch
Score 20
Freshness 4m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 98 Liquidity 88 Spread 0.2 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality25.0
Momentum11.7
Urgency25.0
7d Move1.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 36.5%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move +1.5 pts. Data quality 25/100.

Same theme
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? 45.0% · Watch · score 51 Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legis… 32.0% · Probability Fade · score 46 Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat? 72.0% · Probability Surge · score 42 Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? 44.5% · Watch · score 39 Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? 4.3% · Watch · score 37 Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? 80.5% · Watch · score 37