- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
GEVO
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Gevo Inc · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Latest close
1.62 USD
-0.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 27.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.3%, after a 16.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 7d.
Setup score
32
out of 100
Latest Close
1.62 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-0.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
16.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-20.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
50.0%
26 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.5x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 40.94% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 16.1%.
Indicator stack
28/39
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 40.94%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
40/100 conviction; expected move 15.1%.
News sentiment
59/100
22 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
7d
Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 27.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.3%, after a 16.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.5x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0212-week average 0.20
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.02Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 16.1% over four weeks, -20.0% over 12 weeks, and 10.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year26
Trend breadth50.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.80Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change36.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-22.92Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change37.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 85%
Model confidence 81%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength37/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 64; rank 1 is best.
Value66/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 35; rank 1 is best.
Quality12/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Momentum30/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Growth90/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 30.9x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 4.6% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 47.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -7.3% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 12.9% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -1.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 314.9% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -0.1% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -0.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 5.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
GEVO shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.28, expected move of 15.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction40/100
Expected move15.1%
Put/call volume0.28
Insider activity7 / 13
7 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment59/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.
8 positive · 12 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move15.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-45.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+17.6%Week of 6 Mar.
Worst week-15.9%Week of 10 Apr.
Latest week-0.3%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains9
Modest gains2
Flat weeks1
Modest losses4
Sharp losses10
Recent vol9.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol11.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew9.9% / -6.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Basic Materials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-3.2%
Trend breadth28.0%
Trend28.0%active weekly trend signals
MD26.0%positive activity pressure
RS37.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Specialty Chemicals
4-week rank5 / 55
Group average-2.4%
Trend breadth47.3%
Trend47.3%active weekly trend signals
MD52.7%positive activity pressure
RS38.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape27/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis9/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.02; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 40.94%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 40.94% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors35/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 71; Small Cap Core rank 73 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options42/100GEVO shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.28, expected move of 15.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 15.1% Sentiment59/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.
GEVO|Gevo Inc|Price:1.561|Chg%:-0.064 Insiders7 / 137 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1.62 USD | -0.3% | 1.86 USD | 1.45 USD | -0.80 | -22.92 | 24.8M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1.63 USD | 12.4% | 1.88 USD | 1.45 USD | -1.12 | -24.03 | 22.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1.45 USD | 2.8% | 1.90 USD | 1.45 USD | -1.35 | -35.41 | 10.4M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 1.41 USD | 0.7% | 1.93 USD | 1.45 USD | -1.33 | -36.33 | 14.7M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 1.40 USD | -9.1% | 1.96 USD | 1.45 USD | -1.27 | -36.52 | 18.5M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 1.54 USD | 10.0% | 1.98 USD | 1.45 USD | -1.14 | -33.46 | 19.2M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 1.40 USD | -13.8% | 1.99 USD | 1.45 USD | -1.07 | -38.03 | 14.9M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 1.62 USD | -12.6% | 2.01 USD | 1.45 USD | -0.95 | -26.64 | 13.7M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 1.86 USD | 5.1% | 2.03 USD | 1.45 USD | -0.76 | -19.76 | 13.7M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 1.77 USD | 5.4% | 2.05 USD | 1.45 USD | -0.68 | -21.40 | 13.7M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 1.68 USD | -8.2% | 2.07 USD | 1.45 USD | -0.62 | -24.36 | 16.4M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 1.83 USD | -9.9% | 2.10 USD | 1.44 USD | -0.46 | -17.86 | 21.5M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 2.03 USD | 12.8% | 2.11 USD | 1.44 USD | -0.34 | -3.76 | 13.4M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 1.80 USD | 5.9% | 2.11 USD | 1.43 USD | -0.02 | -12.90 | 16.1M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.