AGO NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Assured Guaranty Ltd · Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

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Latest close 85.36 USD
0.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 4.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 67.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.5%, after a 7.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bearish with 56/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 7d.

Setup score 48 out of 100
Latest Close 85.36 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 0.5% latest completed week
4W Return 7.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 6.1% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 30.8% 16 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.5% Latest completed week; four-week move 7.0%. Indicator stack 17/80 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bearish 56/100 conviction; expected move 6.7%. News sentiment 56/100 47 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 7d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 4.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 67.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.5%, after a 7.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1512-week average 0.06

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.15Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 7.0% over four weeks, 6.1% over 12 weeks, and 3.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.5%
4W7.0%
12W6.1%
26W3.5%
52W3.1%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year16
Trend breadth30.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.70Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change221.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.62Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change57.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength71/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 30; rank 1 is best.
Value88/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 13; rank 1 is best.
Quality35/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Momentum28/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
Growth14/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
9.1x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
4.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
7.0%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
94.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
49.1%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
38.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
6.0%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
3.0%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-6.3%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
74.0%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
12.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
12.9%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBearish

AGO shows bearish options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 13.30, expected move of 6.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction56/100
Expected move6.7%
Put/call volume13.30
Pressure-87
Speculation9
Volatility51
Trend agreement47
Open options detail
Insider activity11 / 9

11 acquisitions and 9 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 47 relevant articles.

14 positive · 32 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move6.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-6.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.9%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-7.2%Week of 8 May.
Latest week+0.5%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains2
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses10
Sharp losses1
Recent vol3.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.1% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape44/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 44/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis16/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.15; No reversal markers Factors55/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 4; Small Cap Core rank 13 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options35/100

AGO shows bearish options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 13.30, expected move of 6.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bearish · Put-side pressure · Expected move 6.7% Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 47 relevant articles.

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis Insiders11 / 9

11 acquisitions and 9 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings7d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202685.36 USD0.5%81.85 USD79.07 USD0.70-4.621.5MOff
17 Jul 202684.96 USD3.5%81.99 USD78.89 USD0.54-5.861.5MOff
10 Jul 202682.10 USD-1.9%82.15 USD78.71 USD0.22-10.691.6MOff
3 Jul 202683.67 USD4.9%82.39 USD78.53 USD-0.16-8.091.4MOff
26 Jun 202679.77 USD4.2%82.53 USD78.34 USD-0.58-10.812.0MOff
19 Jun 202676.52 USD0.1%82.86 USD78.17 USD-0.92-16.892.5MOff
12 Jun 202676.46 USD1.2%83.27 USD78.00 USD-1.02-16.731.7MOff
5 Jun 202675.57 USD1.8%83.60 USD77.84 USD-1.03-17.721.7MOff
29 May 202674.21 USD-3.5%83.94 USD77.69 USD-0.98-21.691.6MOff
22 May 202676.89 USD2.7%84.12 USD77.54 USD-0.82-18.242.1MOff
15 May 202674.88 USD0.3%84.26 USD77.37 USD-0.61-20.193.3MOff
8 May 202674.67 USD-7.2%84.40 USD77.21 USD-0.42-20.762.7MOff
1 May 202680.45 USD-3.0%84.56 USD77.05 USD-0.42-13.301.6MOff
24 Apr 202682.98 USD-1.7%84.65 USD76.85 USD-0.56-10.352.1MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.