OTLY NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Oatly Group AB ADR · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

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Latest close 13.37 USD
33.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 25.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 49.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 33.2%, after a 48.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 54/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 60/100.

Setup score 47 out of 100
Latest Close 13.37 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 33.2% latest completed week
4W Return 48.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 21.1% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 30.8% 16 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 3.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 38.74% based on similar historical setup states.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 33.2% Latest completed week; four-week move 48.6%. Indicator stack 17/59 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Buy Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 38.74% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 54/100 conviction; expected move 23.9%. News sentiment 60/100 43 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 22 Jul Latest stored earnings date was 22 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 25.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 49.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 33.2%, after a 48.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 3.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0612-week average 0.09

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.06Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 48.6% over four weeks, 21.1% over 12 weeks, and -11.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W33.2%
4W48.6%
12W21.1%
26W24.6%
52W-11.6%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year16
Trend breadth30.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.05Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change107.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.92Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change92.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 76% Model confidence 76%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength78/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Value64/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 37; rank 1 is best.
Quality62/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 39; rank 1 is best.
Momentum64/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 37; rank 1 is best.
Growth64/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 37; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
1.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
31.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-12.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
1.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-17.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
10.2%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-8.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

OTLY shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.06, expected move of 23.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction54/100
Expected move23.9%
Put/call volume0.06
Pressure89
Speculation33
Volatility87
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment60/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 43 relevant articles.

24 positive · 13 neutral · 6 negative
Patient CapitalFresh

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Fresh buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings22 JulLatest stored earnings date was 22 Jul 2026.
Options expected move23.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-29.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility11.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+33.2%Week of 24 Jul.
Worst week-18.5%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+33.2%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses9
Recent vol11.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.5% / -5.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape38/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 38/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis15/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.06; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 38.74%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 38.74% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors67/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 44; Small Cap Core rank 45 Patient CapitalFresh

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Fresh buy signal Options36/100

OTLY shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.06, expected move of 23.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 23.9% Sentiment60/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 43 relevant articles.

OTLY|Oatly Group AB (publ)|Price:14.385|Chg%:+1.015 Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings22 Jul

Latest stored earnings date was 22 Jul 2026.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202613.37 USD33.2%10.70 USD15.50 USD0.05-2.922.2MOff
17 Jul 202610.04 USD1.9%10.62 USD15.63 USD-0.35-28.75246.0KOff
10 Jul 20269.85 USD-1.0%10.66 USD15.84 USD-0.44-33.78304.0KOff
3 Jul 20269.95 USD10.6%10.72 USD16.04 USD-0.59-32.54441.0KOff
26 Jun 20269.00 USD9.0%10.79 USD16.23 USD-0.70-38.96397.8KOff
19 Jun 20268.26 USD1.0%10.90 USD16.44 USD-0.69-46.92447.4KOff
12 Jun 20268.18 USD-0.1%11.01 USD16.62 USD-0.62-46.69489.0KOff
5 Jun 20268.19 USD-18.5%11.18 USD16.81 USD-0.42-45.981.6MOff
29 May 202610.05 USD-1.0%11.42 USD17.01 USD-0.28-37.37222.1KOff
22 May 202610.15 USD0.4%11.61 USD17.17 USD-0.03-35.35216.4KOff
15 May 202610.11 USD-2.9%11.79 USD17.33 USD0.30-35.29308.1KOff
8 May 202610.41 USD-5.7%11.91 USD17.49 USD0.61-33.84253.4KOff
1 May 202611.04 USD-12.4%12.02 USD17.69 USD0.90-26.36373.5KOff
24 Apr 202612.60 USD-6.8%12.16 USD17.89 USD0.69-15.07247.6KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.