CAT MEX Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

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Latest close 14,177 MXN
-8.1% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 0.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 62.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -8.1%, after a -14.9% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 52/100.

Setup score 64 out of 100
Latest Close 14,177 MXN 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -8.1% latest completed week
4W Return -14.9% short-term follow-through
12W Return -7.9% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 2.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 53-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -8.1% Latest completed week; four-week move -14.9%. Indicator stack 100/36 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.11% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 52/100 34 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 0.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 62.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -8.1%, after a -14.9% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 2.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8612-week average 0.96

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.86Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -14.9% over four weeks, -7.9% over 12 weeks, and 71.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 53 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-8.1%
4W-14.9%
12W-7.9%
26W24.2%
52W71.9%
Active trend streak53 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.27Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-116.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership14.98Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-62.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.

Open full factor analysis

No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.

05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 34 relevant articles.

7 positive · 24 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-21.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.2%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-8.1%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week-8.1%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.1% / -3.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

IndustryMX Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
4-week rank2 / 2
Group average-10.4%
Trend breadth100.0%
Trend100.0%active weekly trend signals
MD50.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

DE · MEX-5.9%CAT · MEX-14.9%
08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape73/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 73/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis81/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.86; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.11%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.11% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100

No published factor snapshot is available yet.

 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 34 relevant articles.

Caterpillar Stock (CAT) Opinions on Baird Downgrade Amid Data Center Concerns Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202614,177 MXN-8.1%14,104 MXN8,211 MXN-0.2714.983.3KOn
24 Jul 202615,431 MXN-0.5%13,989 MXN8,150 MXN0.3427.092.2KOn
17 Jul 202615,515 MXN-7.6%13,822 MXN8,079 MXN1.0128.54720On
10 Jul 202616,798 MXN0.8%13,645 MXN8,008 MXN1.5640.88343On
3 Jul 202616,664 MXN-5.0%13,461 MXN7,927 MXN1.6240.371.9KOn
26 Jun 202617,538 MXN3.1%13,271 MXN7,847 MXN1.5749.322.6KOn
19 Jun 202617,006 MXN8.4%13,036 MXN7,761 MXN1.3945.9227On
12 Jun 202615,686 MXN-1.1%12,803 MXN7,678 MXN1.3136.0553On
5 Jun 202615,860 MXN4.2%12,617 MXN7,604 MXN1.4143.1723On
29 May 202615,215 MXN-0.8%12,439 MXN7,529 MXN1.5634.382.3KOn
22 May 202615,335 MXN-2.5%12,291 MXN7,457 MXN1.7337.61724On
15 May 202615,723 MXN2.1%12,102 MXN7,383 MXN1.7543.72173On
8 May 202615,400 MXN-1.3%11,902 MXN7,307 MXN1.6738.88917On
1 May 202615,605 MXN8.0%11,698 MXN7,232 MXN1.4746.802.0KOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.