CVNA MEX Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Carvana Co. · Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Latest close 1,040 MXN
-0.1% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 2.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.1%, after a -13.3% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 49/100.

Setup score 25 out of 100
Latest Close 1,040 MXN 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -0.1% latest completed week
4W Return -13.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return -25.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 40.4% 21 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 3.9x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 2.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.1%, after a -13.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 3.9x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0412-week average 0.14

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.04Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -13.3% over four weeks, -25.5% over 12 weeks, and -25.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-0.1%
4W-13.3%
12W-25.5%
26W-28.7%
52W-25.2%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year21
Trend breadth40.4%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.23Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-603.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-21.40Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-84.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.

Open full factor analysis

No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.

05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment49/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 33 relevant articles.

9 positive · 20 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-38.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher9 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+27.4%Week of 24 Apr.
Worst week-15.5%Week of 15 May.
Latest week-0.1%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains3
Flat weeks2
Modest losses7
Sharp losses8
Recent vol7.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split20/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.2% / -5.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

IndustryMX Auto & Truck Dealerships
4-week rank1 / 1
Group average-13.3%
Trend breadth0.0%
Trend0.0%active weekly trend signals
MD0.0%positive activity pressure
RS0.0%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20261,040 MXN-0.1%1,233 MXN822.2 MXN-0.23-21.404.9KOff
24 Jul 20261,041 MXN-13.9%1,251 MXN816.5 MXN-0.01-21.35757Off
17 Jul 20261,208 MXN4.3%1,269 MXN810.8 MXN0.17-9.551.7KOff
10 Jul 20261,159 MXN-3.4%1,283 MXN804.0 MXN0.09-13.482.0KOff
3 Jul 20261,200 MXN7.8%1,301 MXN797.4 MXN0.04-11.63125Off
26 Jun 20261,113 MXN-4.1%1,309 MXN790.3 MXN0.08-18.50723Off
19 Jun 20261,160 MXN3.2%1,316 MXN783.7 MXN0.16-16.060Off
12 Jun 20261,124 MXN-3.5%1,316 MXN776.8 MXN0.18-19.21508Off
5 Jun 20261,165 MXN-8.5%1,317 MXN770.1 MXN0.21-14.36822Off
29 May 20261,273 MXN10.7%1,315 MXN763.1 MXN0.24-10.16418Off
22 May 20261,150 MXN-2.5%1,310 MXN755.3 MXN0.21-18.67430Off
15 May 20261,179 MXN-15.5%1,312 MXN748.2 MXN0.19-16.433.7KOff
8 May 20261,395 MXN0.0%1,317 MXN740.9 MXN-0.09-4.020Off
1 May 20261,395 MXN-2.3%1,313 MXN732.2 MXN-0.40-1.213.3KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.