MERC NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Mercer International Inc · Basic Materials · Paper & Paper Products

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Latest close 0.63 USD
-5.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -51.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 3.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -5.8%, after a -19.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 47/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 5d.

Setup score 18 out of 100
Latest Close 0.63 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -5.8% latest completed week
4W Return -19.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return -35.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 0.0% 0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -5.8% Latest completed week; four-week move -19.0%. Indicator stack 0/52 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 47/100 conviction; expected move 75.2%. News sentiment 48/100 56 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 5d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -51.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 3.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -5.8%, after a -19.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0212-week average 0.00

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.02Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -19.0% over four weeks, -35.5% over 12 weeks, and -79.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-5.8%
4W-19.0%
12W-35.5%
26W-68.9%
52W-79.1%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.12Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change52.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-68.64Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-1.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 79% Model confidence 76%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength52/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 49; rank 1 is best.
Value50/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 51; rank 1 is best.
Quality48/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 53; rank 1 is best.
Momentum50/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 51; rank 1 is best.
Growth50/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 51; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
0.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-3.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-25.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
0.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-22.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-7.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-96.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
22.3%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
22.3%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-5.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

MERC shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 75.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction47/100
Expected move75.2%
Put/call volume0.00
Pressure88
Speculation0
Volatility96
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.

7 positive · 38 neutral · 11 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings5dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move75.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-81.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility10.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+15.7%Week of 20 Feb.
Worst week-21.1%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week-5.8%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses0
Sharp losses15
Recent vol10.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol10.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/30Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.7% / -9.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape20/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 20/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis12/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.02; No reversal markers Factors49/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Tiny Titans rank 97; Buyback Yield rank 50 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options34/100

MERC shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 75.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 75.2% Sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.

Kellogg group lifts Mercer International (MERC) stake to 40.25% Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings5d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20260.63 USD-5.8%1.31 USD5.20 USD-0.12-68.641.6MOff
24 Jul 20260.67 USD2.2%1.36 USD5.25 USD0.03-67.492.2MOff
17 Jul 20260.66 USD2.4%1.40 USD5.30 USD0.03-69.853.5MOff
10 Jul 20260.64 USD-17.7%1.45 USD5.34 USD-0.06-72.645.3MOff
3 Jul 20260.78 USD15.1%1.49 USD5.39 USD-0.26-67.333.6MOff
26 Jun 20260.68 USD-21.1%1.53 USD5.44 USD-0.58-72.273.3MOff
19 Jun 20260.86 USD-4.3%1.57 USD5.48 USD-0.82-67.421.6MOff
12 Jun 20260.90 USD6.9%1.59 USD5.52 USD-0.82-66.001.5MOff
5 Jun 20260.84 USD-9.7%1.62 USD5.57 USD-0.75-68.371.9MOff
29 May 20260.93 USD-10.6%1.65 USD5.62 USD-0.73-67.491.7MOff
22 May 20261.04 USD10.6%1.69 USD5.66 USD-0.70-63.593.9MOff
15 May 20260.94 USD-4.1%1.74 USD5.71 USD-0.85-67.544.7MOff
8 May 20260.98 USD-14.8%1.79 USD5.76 USD-0.89-67.282.2MOff
1 May 20261.15 USD2.7%1.85 USD5.80 USD-0.85-60.611.6MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.