MSFT NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Microsoft Corporation · Technology · Software - Infrastructure

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Latest close 464.7 USD
21.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 13.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 57.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 21.8%, after a 19.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 38/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 59/100.

Setup score 48 out of 100
Latest Close 464.7 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 21.8% latest completed week
4W Return 19.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 12.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 30.8% 16 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
  • Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 21.8% Latest completed week; four-week move 19.0%. Indicator stack 17/48 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 38/100 conviction; expected move 1.9%. News sentiment 59/100 38 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 29 Jul Latest stored earnings date was 29 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 13.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 57.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 21.8%, after a 19.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.2812-week average 0.18

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.28Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 19.0% over four weeks, 12.2% over 12 weeks, and -10.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W21.8%
4W19.0%
12W12.2%
26W8.5%
52W-10.6%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year16
Trend breadth30.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.13Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-55.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-5.39Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change79.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength21/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Value17/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Quality99/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Momentum13/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Growth93/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework55/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
22.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
8.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.6x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
9.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
68.3%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
49.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
84.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
25.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
17.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
29.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
39.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.7%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.5x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

MSFT shows bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.41, expected move of 1.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction38/100
Expected move1.9%
Put/call volume0.41
Pressure48
Speculation49
Volatility26
Trend agreement17
Open options detail
Insider activity16 / 4

16 acquisitions and 4 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 38 relevant articles.

16 positive · 20 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings29 JulLatest stored earnings date was 29 Jul 2026.
Options expected move1.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-15.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+21.8%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-7.5%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+21.8%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses4
Recent vol7.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/30Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.7% / -2.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape39/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 39/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis33/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.28; No reversal markers Factors38/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 33 SVQF55/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 324.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options45/100

MSFT shows bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.41, expected move of 1.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 1.9% Sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 38 relevant articles.

Microsoft Posts Record Revenue as Cloud Services Cross $100 Billion. Here’s Our New Price Target Insiders16 / 4

16 acquisitions and 4 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings29 Jul

Latest stored earnings date was 29 Jul 2026.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026464.7 USD21.8%407.9 USD418.2 USD0.13-5.39278.4MOff
24 Jul 2026381.7 USD-3.1%408.1 USD417.3 USD-0.15-22.42138.2MOff
17 Jul 2026393.8 USD2.3%411.5 USD416.9 USD0.13-21.96163.1MOff
10 Jul 2026385.1 USD-1.4%414.5 USD416.6 USD0.15-27.51145.2MOff
3 Jul 2026390.5 USD4.7%417.6 USD416.3 USD0.29-25.89186.4MOff
26 Jun 2026373.0 USD-1.7%420.6 USD415.9 USD0.45-29.24382.9MOff
19 Jun 2026379.4 USD-2.9%424.5 USD415.6 USD0.64-31.91165.5MOff
12 Jun 2026390.7 USD-6.2%427.5 USD415.3 USD0.77-28.71182.1MOff
5 Jun 2026416.7 USD-7.5%431.4 USD414.9 USD0.89-22.92191.4MOff
29 May 2026450.2 USD7.6%433.9 USD414.3 USD0.81-21.04186.2MOff
22 May 2026418.6 USD-0.6%436.1 USD413.5 USD0.66-24.98147.0MOff
15 May 2026421.0 USD1.6%439.5 USD412.9 USD0.61-24.19181.8MOff
8 May 2026414.2 USD0.2%442.4 USD412.2 USD0.45-26.15152.4MOff
1 May 2026413.5 USD-2.4%445.6 USD411.5 USD-0.02-22.80201.9MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.