ADTN NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

ADTRAN Inc · Technology · Communication Equipment

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Latest close 8.51 USD
-13.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -32.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 10.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -13.6%, after a -33.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 39/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 46/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 2d.

Setup score 28 out of 100
Latest Close 8.51 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -13.6% latest completed week
4W Return -33.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return -43.0% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 59.6% 31 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 1 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -13.6% Latest completed week; four-week move -33.0%. Indicator stack 33/19 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 39/100 conviction; expected move 20.0%. News sentiment 46/100 60 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 2d Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -32.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 10.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -13.6%, after a -33.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.4912-week average 0.80

12-week confirmation

Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.49Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -33.0% over four weeks, -43.0% over 12 weeks, and -2.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-13.6%
4W-33.0%
12W-43.0%
26W-7.7%
52W-2.9%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year31
Trend breadth59.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.15Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-125.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-28.74Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-1332.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 87%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength21/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Value28/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
Quality22/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Momentum69/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Growth78/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.7x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
12.6x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
10.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
38.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
0.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
12.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
18.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-14.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.0%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.3%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.5x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

ADTN shows bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.20, expected move of 20.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction39/100
Expected move20.0%
Put/call volume0.20
Pressure63
Speculation12
Volatility96
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity4 / 8

4 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment46/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 60 relevant articles.

11 positive · 34 neutral · 15 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move20.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-57.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+17.2%Week of 10 Apr.
Worst week-19.0%Week of 8 May.
Latest week-13.6%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses8
Recent vol8.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.2% / -6.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape32/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 32/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis61/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 9/12.

Activity pressure 0.49; 1 reversal markers Factors32/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 74; Small Cap Core rank 68 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options41/100

ADTN shows bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.20, expected move of 20.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 20.0% Sentiment46/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 60 relevant articles.

ADTRAN Holdings Inc expected to post earnings of 10 cents a share - Earnings Preview Insiders4 / 8

4 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings2d

Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20268.51 USD-13.6%12.63 USD8.48 USD-1.15-28.7416.3MOff
24 Jul 20269.85 USD-15.5%12.63 USD8.48 USD-1.15-17.3911.8MOff
17 Jul 202611.65 USD-13.3%12.60 USD8.48 USD-1.03-4.067.6MOn
10 Jul 202613.44 USD5.7%12.50 USD8.47 USD-0.776.076.2MOn
3 Jul 202612.71 USD-6.0%12.33 USD8.45 USD-0.512.338.6MOn
26 Jun 202613.52 USD-10.9%12.19 USD8.44 USD-0.119.8611.6MOn
19 Jun 202615.18 USD-0.5%12.00 USD8.42 USD0.3418.1710.5MOn
12 Jun 202615.26 USD-0.6%11.74 USD8.39 USD0.5222.7211.0MOn
5 Jun 202615.35 USD-7.3%11.48 USD8.36 USD0.6727.2614.3MOn
29 May 202616.55 USD5.6%11.23 USD8.32 USD0.8432.0117.8MOn
22 May 202615.67 USD5.1%11.03 USD8.27 USD1.0129.628.6MOn
15 May 202614.91 USD-0.2%10.84 USD8.23 USD1.3425.7611.3MOn
8 May 202614.94 USD-19.0%10.65 USD8.19 USD1.6326.3919.4MOn
1 May 202618.45 USD9.0%10.43 USD8.15 USD1.8065.6514.8MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.