Ticker Options Intelligence

ADTN options intelligence

ADTRAN Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 39 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 05:15 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ADTN currently carries bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 20.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 20.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.20

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -13.6%

RS -28.7

Expected move 20.6%
Put-call volume 0.20
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.99
Max pain 11.00
Underlying 9.85
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 258

Research Brief

ADTN has a bullish chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.83–11.87; The largest call open-interest concentration is 11.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00.

Priced range7.83–11.87
Call concentration11.00
Put concentration9.00
Max pain reference11.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 7.83 to 11.87. Max pain at 11.00 sits inside that range, 11.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
7.839.85 ± 2.0211.87
Confirmation level

A close beyond 11.87 or below 7.83 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 39/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 63/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure63 × 42%
+26.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation12 × 22%
+2.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 11.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
100
5.00-49.2%
4
159
7.00-28.9%
25
10024
9.00-8.6%
257
85
10.001.5%
356
5433
11.0011.7%
5193
18
12.0021.8%
105
51
13.0032.0%
101
8
14.0042.1%
848
1
15.0052.3%
3010
11
16.0062.4%
123
3
17.0072.6%
147
33
18.0082.7%
402
0
19.0092.9%
801
0
20.00103.0%
2047
0
23.00133.5%
86
0
25.00153.8%
382
0
30.00204.6%
90
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.19× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.99 21 Aug 21d
0.91 18 Sep 49d
0.87 20 Nov 112d
0.89 15 Jan 168d
0.84 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

8
9
10
11
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
258 / 258
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

89/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $16815 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+63
1W price-13.6%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split C 87% / P 13% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 157 contracts traded, $9078 estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$9078
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 145 contracts traded, $4402 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$4402
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 61 contracts traded, $1982 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1982
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $900 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$900
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $225 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$225

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close8.51
1W-13.6%
RS-28.7
Fair value+0.3%
Options pressure63
Speculation12
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 20.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.99 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.20 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:08 Volatility
Pressure -89
Move 21.8%
29 Jul 23:02 Volatility
Pressure -90
Move 23.6%
31 Jul 10:12 Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 22.3%
31 Jul 18:02 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 21.1%
1 Aug 04:15 Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 20.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 27
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 25
Puts · V 61 · OI 159
Strike8.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 31

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.99
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.91
Put-call1.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.87
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts62
Avg IV0.89
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.84
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.95
Put IV1.21
Skew0.26
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.05
Put IV0.98
Skew-0.07
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.91
Put IV0.88
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.86
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.83
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractADTN260821C00009000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume156
OI257
IV0.94
ContractADTN270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume124
OI980
IV0.92
ContractADTN260821P00007000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.00
Volume61
OI159
IV1.21
ContractADTN261120C00020000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike20.00
Volume20
OI213
IV0.94
ContractADTN261120C00009000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike9.00
Volume6
OI206
IV0.88
ContractADTN260918P00008000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike8.00
Volume3
OI2
IV0.83
ContractADTN260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume2
OI356
IV0.95
ContractADTN260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume2
OI4
IV0.92