UNP GER Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials · Railroads

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Latest close 253.7 EUR
-6.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 14.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 78.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.3%, after a 3.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 55/100.

Setup score 76 out of 100
Latest Close 253.7 EUR 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -6.3% latest completed week
4W Return 3.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 17.9% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 65.4% 34 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 2.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 34-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 7 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
  • Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -6.3% Latest completed week; four-week move 3.6%. Indicator stack 81/82 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 55/100 38 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 14.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 78.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.3%, after a 3.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 2.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9912-week average 0.85

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.99Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers77 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 7 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 3.6% over four weeks, 17.9% over 12 weeks, and 34.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 34 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-6.3%
4W3.6%
12W17.9%
26W31.6%
52W34.2%
Active trend streak34 weeks
Active weeks in one year34
Trend breadth65.4%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.65Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change28.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership15.19Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change16.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 88% Model confidence 88%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength53/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Value15/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Quality90/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Momentum80/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Growth40/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 61; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework32/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
22.0x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
6.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
3.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
45.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
40.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
25.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
15.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
8/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.3%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 38 relevant articles.

11 positive · 27 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-7.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 266 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.1%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-6.3%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week-6.3%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains11
Flat weeks4
Modest losses4
Sharp losses2
Recent vol4.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/13Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.9% / -2.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape76/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 76/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis80/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.99; 7 reversal markers Factors59/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 42 SVQF32/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 255.0 of 372 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 38 relevant articles.

Janus Henderson Group PLC Purchases 162,065 Shares of Union Pacific Corporation $UNP Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026253.7 EUR-6.3%221.8 EUR206.6 EUR1.6515.191.1KOn
24 Jul 2026270.9 EUR2.6%219.8 EUR206.2 EUR1.8226.12942On
17 Jul 2026264.0 EUR4.7%217.3 EUR205.8 EUR1.7425.07291On
10 Jul 2026252.2 EUR3.0%215.1 EUR205.2 EUR1.4319.12484On
3 Jul 2026244.9 EUR3.6%213.4 EUR204.7 EUR1.2913.061.3KOn
26 Jun 2026236.3 EUR6.8%212.0 EUR204.3 EUR0.9814.4084On
19 Jun 2026221.3 EUR-6.2%210.6 EUR203.9 EUR0.596.2022On
12 Jun 2026235.9 EUR0.8%209.7 EUR203.6 EUR0.5915.0237On
5 Jun 2026234.0 EUR4.7%208.0 EUR203.2 EUR0.1813.91122On
29 May 2026223.5 EUR-2.8%206.5 EUR202.8 EUR-0.007.68157On
22 May 2026229.9 EUR6.8%205.3 EUR202.5 EUR0.0211.97640On
15 May 2026215.3 EUR0.0%203.9 EUR202.1 EUR-0.069.240On
8 May 2026215.3 EUR0.0%203.1 EUR201.8 EUR0.127.630On
1 May 2026215.3 EUR0.0%202.2 EUR201.5 EUR0.188.050On
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.