- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
DT3
GER
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Dollar Tree, Inc. · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Latest close
111.0 EUR
4.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 11.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 75.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.7%, after a 2.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 56/100.
Setup score
57
out of 100
Latest Close
111.0 EUR
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
4.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
2.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
24.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
1.9%
1 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
3.6x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 40.59% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
4.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move 2.2%.
Indicator stack
1/72
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 40.59%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
56/100
17 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 11.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 75.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.7%, after a 2.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 3.6x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5312-week average 0.20
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.53Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 2.2% over four weeks, 24.9% over 12 weeks, and 3.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year1
Trend breadth1.9%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.05Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change37.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership3.59Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change459.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 30 Apr 2026
Field coverage 88%
Model confidence 88%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength56/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 45; rank 1 is best.
Value40/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 61; rank 1 is best.
Quality88/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 13; rank 1 is best.
Momentum37/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 64; rank 1 is best.
Growth78/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework44/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 15.8x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.1x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 5.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 36.7% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 8.8% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 7.9% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 12.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 10.4% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -10.4% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 8/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 8.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 8.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment56/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.
5 positive · 11 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-9.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher13 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+20.3%Week of 29 May.
Worst week-8.8%Week of 10 Apr.
Latest week+4.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains6
Flat weeks4
Modest losses3
Sharp losses6
Recent vol7.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split20/15Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.4% / -6.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorDE Consumer Defensive
4-week rank13 / 38
Group average0.8%
Trend breadth42.1%
Trend42.1%active weekly trend signals
MD73.7%positive activity pressure
RS39.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryDE Discount Stores
4-week rank1 / 4
Group average-0.6%
Trend breadth25.0%
Trend25.0%active weekly trend signals
MD50.0%positive activity pressure
RS50.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape51/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 51/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis40/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 6/12.
Activity pressure 0.53; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 40.59%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 40.59% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors56/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 3; Small Cap Core rank 45 SVQF44/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 207.5 of 372 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment56/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Shares Surge 4.2% -- What GF Score of 79 Tells Investors Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 111.0 EUR | 4.7% | 99.90 EUR | 105.7 EUR | 1.05 | 3.59 | 697 | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 106.0 EUR | -6.9% | 99.80 EUR | 105.9 EUR | 1.02 | 0.90 | 0 | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 113.9 EUR | 4.7% | 99.68 EUR | 106.1 EUR | 1.08 | 9.48 | 373 | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 108.8 EUR | 0.2% | 99.47 EUR | 106.2 EUR | 0.92 | 3.71 | 346 | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 108.6 EUR | 0.2% | 99.48 EUR | 106.4 EUR | 0.77 | 0.64 | 116 | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 108.4 EUR | 12.2% | 99.19 EUR | 106.5 EUR | 0.52 | 4.77 | 41 | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 96.62 EUR | -2.0% | 98.79 EUR | 106.7 EUR | 0.35 | -7.79 | 0 | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 98.60 EUR | 3.5% | 98.49 EUR | 106.9 EUR | -0.06 | -4.88 | 0 | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 95.25 EUR | -3.0% | 98.20 EUR | 107.1 EUR | -0.42 | -8.80 | 2 | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 98.21 EUR | 20.3% | 98.01 EUR | 107.2 EUR | -0.64 | -7.50 | 878 | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 81.62 EUR | -8.1% | 98.32 EUR | 107.4 EUR | -0.95 | -22.66 | 88 | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 88.83 EUR | 0.0% | 99.17 EUR | 107.7 EUR | -0.97 | -13.03 | 0 | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 88.83 EUR | 0.0% | 99.79 EUR | 108.1 EUR | -0.96 | -14.72 | 0 | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 88.83 EUR | 0.0% | 100.4 EUR | 108.4 EUR | -1.03 | -14.91 | 0 | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.