BSP GER Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

BAE Systems plc · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Open interactive chart View report data
Latest close 24.49 EUR
6.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 4.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 71.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.2%, after a 6.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.

Setup score 59 out of 100
Latest Close 24.49 EUR 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 6.2% latest completed week
4W Return 6.4% short-term follow-through
12W Return 8.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 61.5% 32 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.9x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 6.2% Latest completed week; four-week move 6.4%. Indicator stack 34/50 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 50/100 0 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 4.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 71.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.2%, after a 6.4% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.9x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.2312-week average 0.40

12-week confirmation

Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership4/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.23Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 6.4% over four weeks, 8.7% over 12 weeks, and 19.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W6.2%
4W6.4%
12W8.7%
26W8.2%
52W19.0%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year32
Trend breadth61.5%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.31Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change67.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership4.49Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change307.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 74%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength32/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 69; rank 1 is best.
Value12/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality90/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Momentum60/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
Growth72/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
32.8x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.4x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
3.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
65.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
9.5%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
8.2%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
11.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
7.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
5.5%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-15.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
8/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.8%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.7%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 0 relevant articles.

0 positive · 0 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-9.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+10.4%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-9.5%Week of 24 Apr.
Latest week+6.2%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses7
Recent vol5.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.6% / -3.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape55/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 55/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis27/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 4/12.

Activity pressure 0.23; No reversal markers Factors48/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 31; Small Cap Core rank 89 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 0 relevant articles.

 Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202624.49 EUR6.2%23.42 EUR17.61 EUR-0.314.49577.7KOff
24 Jul 202623.06 EUR4.2%23.27 EUR17.53 EUR-0.580.63277.3KOff
17 Jul 202622.12 EUR1.4%23.15 EUR17.44 EUR-0.80-2.32317.7KOff
10 Jul 202621.81 EUR-5.3%23.07 EUR17.37 EUR-0.90-4.63462.8KOff
3 Jul 202623.02 EUR9.7%22.98 EUR17.29 EUR-0.94-2.16496.8KOff
26 Jun 202620.99 EUR-1.8%22.84 EUR17.21 EUR-1.13-6.8194.3KOff
19 Jun 202621.38 EUR-4.0%22.76 EUR17.14 EUR-1.03-6.3646.7KOff
12 Jun 202622.26 EUR-0.7%22.69 EUR17.07 EUR-0.94-1.30108.5KOff
5 Jun 202622.41 EUR-4.4%22.62 EUR17.00 EUR-0.90-1.2653.1KOn
29 May 202623.44 EUR1.5%22.55 EUR16.92 EUR-0.851.78246.7KOn
22 May 202623.09 EUR9.6%22.48 EUR16.84 EUR-0.781.14304.9KOn
15 May 202621.07 EUR-6.4%22.41 EUR16.76 EUR-0.69-4.08528.9KOn
8 May 202622.52 EUR-4.9%22.40 EUR16.70 EUR-0.340.90498.3KOn
1 May 202623.69 EUR1.6%22.39 EUR16.62 EUR-0.026.53320.4KOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.