ALTO NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Alto Ingredients Inc · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

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Latest close 4.76 USD
2.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 9.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 74.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.6%, after a -14.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 55/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 50 out of 100
Latest Close 4.76 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 2.6% latest completed week
4W Return -14.4% short-term follow-through
12W Return 6.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 84.6% 44 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 44-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.22% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 2.6% Latest completed week; four-week move -14.4%. Indicator stack 92/0 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.22% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 55/100 conviction; expected move 20.5%. News sentiment 59/100 55 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 9.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 74.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.6%, after a -14.4% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8312-week average 0.89

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.83Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -14.4% over four weeks, 6.7% over 12 weeks, and 353.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 44 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W2.6%
4W-14.4%
12W6.7%
26W90.4%
52W353.3%
Active trend streak44 weeks
Active weeks in one year44
Trend breadth84.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.53Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-808.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership40.07Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-44.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength90/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Value91/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Quality22/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Momentum100/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 1; rank 1 is best.
Growth21/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework64/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
12.3x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.4x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
6.7x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
9.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
4.0%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
4.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
4.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
11.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-3.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.4%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

ALTO shows volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 20.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction55/100
Expected move20.5%
Put/call volume0.01
Pressure100
Speculation6
Volatility96
Trend agreement9
Open options detail
Insider activity6 / 1

6 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

24 positive · 30 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move20.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-22.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher18 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+92.5%Week of 6 Mar.
Worst week-20.5%Week of 24 Jul.
Latest week+2.6%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses2
Sharp losses6
Recent vol9.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol17.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split34/16Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew10.6% / -9.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape57/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 57/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis76/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.83; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.22%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.22% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors74/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 54; Small Cap Core rank 17 SVQF64/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 263.0 of 726 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options39/100

ALTO shows volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 20.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 20.5% Sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

ALTO|Alto Ingredients Inc|Price:4.350|Chg%:-0.100 Insiders6 / 1

6 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20264.76 USD2.6%4.35 USD2.35 USD-0.5340.079.0MOn
24 Jul 20264.64 USD-20.5%4.28 USD2.35 USD-0.2540.0213.4MOn
17 Jul 20265.84 USD3.7%4.22 USD2.34 USD-0.0276.7113.8MOn
10 Jul 20265.63 USD1.3%4.13 USD2.33 USD-0.1367.559.2MOn
3 Jul 20265.56 USD7.1%4.02 USD2.32 USD0.0772.4111.0MOn
26 Jun 20265.19 USD3.4%3.92 USD2.30 USD0.2966.2518.7MOn
19 Jun 20265.02 USD-11.9%3.83 USD2.29 USD0.4757.1711.7MOn
12 Jun 20265.70 USD5.0%3.74 USD2.27 USD0.5887.0911.9MOn
5 Jun 20265.43 USD-0.4%3.61 USD2.25 USD0.5787.1712.3MOn
29 May 20265.45 USD16.0%3.48 USD2.23 USD0.5784.3713.3MOn
22 May 20264.70 USD0.6%3.33 USD2.21 USD0.7068.126.8MOn
15 May 20264.67 USD4.7%3.21 USD2.19 USD0.9773.0311.7MOn
8 May 20264.46 USD-17.9%3.09 USD2.18 USD1.1668.8415.2MOn
1 May 20265.43 USD2.1%2.98 USD2.16 USD1.28122.037.5MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.