Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 17 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
478.70
Total Return
378.70%
CAGR
55.90% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.12%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.64 Sortino 5.14
Current Holdings
1077
Transactions
10779 Avg 3056.6/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4851 Stop 41.6% · Warning 57.9% · Other 0.5%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

17 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
19
ADBE NASDAQ · Adobe Systems Incorporated
237.25 MD 0.17 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BL NASDAQ · Blackline Inc
30.29 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BLKB NASDAQ · Blackbaud Inc
32.40 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CURV NYSE · Torrid Holdings Inc
2.33 MD 0.17 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DFIN NYSE · Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc
49.95 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
EXPO NASDAQ · Exponent Inc
62.88 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
FIS NYSE · Fidelity National Information Services Inc
41.91 MD 0.19 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HCKT NASDAQ · The Hackett Group Inc
10.34 MD 0.19 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ICFI NASDAQ · ICF International Inc
78.86 MD 0.80 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
IQ NASDAQ · iQIYI Inc
1.19 MD 0.25 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAW NYSE · CS Disco LLC
4.05 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MAT NASDAQ · Mattel Inc
14.30 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
NRDS NASDAQ · Nerdwallet Inc
9.26 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ONT NYSE · Onterris
20.93 MD 0.36 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OPRX NASDAQ · OPTIMIZERx Corp
6.69 MD 0.86 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PODD NASDAQ · Insulet Corporation
164.06 MD 0.42 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RCEL NASDAQ · Avita Medical Ltd
5.10 MD 0.39 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
UPWK NASDAQ · Upwork Inc
9.06 MD 0.10 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XRAY NASDAQ · Dentsply Sirona Inc
14.05 MD 0.72 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
36
ACB NASDAQ · Aurora Cannabis Inc
2.63 20% entry drawdown · -20.78%
AIFU NASDAQ · Fanhua Inc.
34.52 20% entry drawdown · -25.28%
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
11.01 20% entry drawdown · -20.68%
ALDX NASDAQ · Aldeyra The
1.69 20% entry drawdown · -25.55%
ARCT NASDAQ · Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc
6.05 20% entry drawdown · -26.49%
AWRE NASDAQ · Aware Inc
1.11 20% entry drawdown · -26.97%
BEEM NASDAQ · Beam Global
1.03 20% entry drawdown · -24.82%
BNAI NASDAQ · Brand Engagement Network Inc
11.62 20% entry drawdown · -29.49%
BTBT NASDAQ · Bit Digital Inc
1.40 20% entry drawdown · -29.65%
EIX NYSE · Edison International
77.63 Reversal Risk Warning · 49.97%
EVGO NASDAQ · Evgo Inc
1.68 20% entry drawdown · -20.94%
EVO NASDAQ · Evotec SE ADR
1.96 20% entry drawdown · -27.94%
GENK NASDAQ · GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
1.77 20% entry drawdown · -24.36%
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.05 20% entry drawdown · -28.08%
GRDX NASDAQ · GridAI Technologies Corp.
3.82 20% entry drawdown · -29.26%
HUBG NASDAQ · Hub Group Inc
51.22 Reversal Risk Warning · 45.11%
INV NASDAQ · Innventure, Inc.
3.37 20% entry drawdown · -27.37%
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
9.35 20% entry drawdown · -20.29%
LEDS NASDAQ · SemiLEDS Corporation
3.01 Reversal Risk Warning · 67.22%
LONA NASDAQ · LeonaBio, Inc.
7.22 20% entry drawdown · -27.22%
MTEX NASDAQ · Mannatech Incorporated
4.25 20% entry drawdown · -21.59%
OABI NASDAQ · OmniAb Inc.
2.12 20% entry drawdown · -20.00%
OCCI NASDAQ · OFS Credit Company Inc
2.27 20% entry drawdown · -23.83%
PBF NYSE · PBF Energy Inc
62.75 Reversal Risk Warning · 219.84%
PLUG NASDAQ · Plug Power Inc
2.17 20% entry drawdown · -20.80%
PMCB NASDAQ · PharmaCyte Biotech Inc
0.63 20% entry drawdown · -21.31%
PMEC NASDAQ · Primech Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares
0.52 20% entry drawdown · -28.59%
QFIN NASDAQ · 360 Finance Inc
12.73 20% entry drawdown · -20.83%
RPT NYSE · Rithm Property Trust Inc.
10.89 20% entry drawdown · -27.03%
RXRX NASDAQ · Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc
2.95 20% entry drawdown · -22.50%
SNPS NASDAQ · Synopsys Inc
384.28 20% entry drawdown · -25.60%
SORA NASDAQ · Top Win International Limited
1.73 20% entry drawdown · -23.18%
VERU NASDAQ · Veru Inc
2.38 20% entry drawdown · -30.00%
WING NASDAQ · Wingstop Inc
142.33 20% entry drawdown · -20.03%
WW NASDAQ · WW International, Inc. Common Stock
14.57 20% entry drawdown · -21.46%
ZSQR NASDAQ · Z Squared Inc.
5.06 20% entry drawdown · -45.47%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 691-720 of 1077 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
NSIT NASDAQ · Insight Enterprises Inc
22 May 202697.73
115.33
18.00%
Buy
1.28
-
-
NSP NYSE · Insperity Inc
8 May 202632.02
49.55
54.77%
Buy
0.09
-
-
NSSC NASDAQ · NAPCO Security Technologies Inc
16 May 202527.30
36.12
32.30%
Buy
0.11
-
-
NTIC NASDAQ · Northern Technologies
4 Jul 20258.25
8.09
-1.93%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NTLA NASDAQ · Intellia Therapeutics Inc
20 Feb 202612.64
11.38
-10.01%
Buy
0.15
-
-
NTNX NASDAQ · Nutanix Inc
24 Apr 202640.56
55.08
35.80%
Buy
0.02
-
-
NVAX NASDAQ · Novavax Inc
30 May 20257.34
8.21
11.85%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NVCR NASDAQ · Novocure Ltd
1 May 202616.62
15.92
-4.21%
Buy
0.19
-
-
NVO NYSE · Novo Nordisk A/S
22 May 202644.96
50.32
11.92%
Buy
0.26
-
-
NVR NYSE · NVR Inc
26 Jun 20266828.62
6490.04
-4.96%
Buy
0.38
-
-
NVST NYSE · Envista Holdings Corp
16 Aug 202417.91
26.74
49.30%
Buy
0.28
-
-
NWL NASDAQ · Newell Brands Inc
12 Jun 20264.92
5.23
6.30%
Buy
0.17
-
-
NX NYSE · Quanex Building Products
19 Dec 202515.30
18.17
18.78%
Buy
0.25
-
-
NXDR NYSE · NXDR
15 May 20262.03
2.39
17.73%
Buy
0.30
-
-
NXPL NASDAQ · Nextplat Corp
1 May 20266.34
5.81
-8.36%
Buy
0.10
-
-
NXRT NYSE · Nexpoint Residential Trust Inc
8 May 202629.38
26.59
-9.50%
Buy
0.03
-
-
OBA NASDAQ · Oxley Bridge Acquisition Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
6 Mar 202610.12
10.26
1.38%
Buy
0.75
-
-
OBIO NASDAQ · Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc.
17 Oct 20253.32
3.68
10.84%
Buy
0.99
-
-
OC NYSE · Owens Corning Inc
23 Jan 2026123.48
143.11
15.89%
Buy
0.19
-
-
OCSL NASDAQ · Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp
17 Apr 202612.75
12.15
-4.71%
Buy
0.09
-
-
ODD NASDAQ · ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
12 Jun 202611.72
16.33
39.29%
Buy
0.38
-
-
OEC NYSE · Orion Engineered Carbons SA
27 Mar 20266.04
6.85
13.36%
Buy
0.37
-
-
OFS NASDAQ · OFS Capital Corp
17 Apr 20263.96
3.50
-11.51%
Buy
0.09
-
-
OGCP NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP
15 May 20265.69
5.55
-2.38%
Buy
0.04
-
-
OGN NYSE · Organon & Co
17 Apr 20269.75
13.52
38.73%
Buy
0.23
-
-
OI NYSE · O-I Glass Inc
3 Jul 20269.79
9.10
-7.05%
Buy
0.11
-
-
OKUR NASDAQ · OnKure Therapeutics, Inc.
22 Aug 20252.83
4.20
48.41%
Buy
1.52
-
-
OLED NASDAQ · Universal Display
19 Jun 202688.94
80.18
-9.85%
Buy
0.08
-
-
OLN NYSE · Olin Corporation
22 Aug 202522.41
21.99
-1.86%
Buy
1.14
-
-
OLPX NASDAQ · Olaplex Holdings Inc
26 Dec 20251.35
2.07
53.33%
Buy
0.38
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 4681-4710 of 10779
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
4 Jul 2025
Entry
PHUN NASDAQ · Phunware Inc
3.36
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.77
4 Jul 2025
Entry
PLAB NASDAQ · Photronics Inc
20.26
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.18
4 Jul 2025
Exit
PRA NYSE · ProAssurance Corporation
23.63
Reversal Risk Warning
92.90%
Entry 22 Mar 2024 12.25
4 Jul 2025
Entry
PVH NYSE · PVH Corp
72.31
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.22
4 Jul 2025
Entry
PXLW NASDAQ · Pixelworks Inc
7.22
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.11
4 Jul 2025
Exit
RDN NYSE · Radian Group Inc
35.73
Reversal Risk Warning
52.44%
Entry 14 Jul 2023 23.44
4 Jul 2025
Entry
RELL NASDAQ · Richardson Electronics Ltd
10.01
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.00
4 Jul 2025
Entry
RLJ NYSE · RLJ Lodging Trust
7.13
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.05
4 Jul 2025
Entry
RMCF NASDAQ · Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
1.57
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.80
4 Jul 2025
Entry
RMCO NASDAQ · Royalty Management Holding Corporation
1.59
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.19
4 Jul 2025
Entry
RPT NYSE · Rithm Property Trust Inc.
14.92
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.03
4 Jul 2025
Exit
SAH NYSE · Sonic Automotive Inc
85.68
Reversal Risk Warning
73.34%
Entry 17 Nov 2023 49.43
4 Jul 2025
Exit
SAR NYSE · Saratoga Investment Corp
21.50
Reversal Risk Warning
17.35%
Entry 8 Dec 2023 18.32
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SATS NASDAQ · EchoStar Corporation
31.36
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.25
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SCNX NASDAQ · Scienture Holdings, Inc.
1.45
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.55
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SEPN NASDAQ · Septerna, Inc. Common Stock
11.37
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.75
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SERA NASDAQ · Sera Prognostics Inc
2.49
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.28
4 Jul 2025
Exit
SEZL NASDAQ · Sezzle Inc.
182.16
Reversal Risk Warning
279.74%
Entry 25 Apr 2025 47.97
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SHLS NASDAQ · Shoals Technologies Group Inc
5.98
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.02
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SIRI NASDAQ · Sirius XM Holding Inc
23.18
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.57
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SMRT NYSE · SmartRent Inc
1.11
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.68
4 Jul 2025
Exit
SNT NASDAQ · Senstar Technologies Ltd
5.04
Reversal Risk Warning
200.00%
Entry 14 Jun 2024 1.68
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SOHU NASDAQ · Sohu.Com Inc
13.78
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.29
4 Jul 2025
Exit
SPOK NASDAQ · Spok Holdings Inc
16.18
Reversal Risk Warning
39.32%
Entry 15 Sep 2023 11.62
4 Jul 2025
Entry
SWK NYSE · Stanley Black & Decker Inc
67.98
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.13
4 Jul 2025
Entry
TCRX NASDAQ · Tscan Therapeutics Inc
1.51
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.01
4 Jul 2025
Exit
TDG NYSE · Transdigm Group Incorporated
1424.71
Reversal Risk Warning
67.84%
Entry 17 Nov 2023 848.87
4 Jul 2025
Entry
TKR NYSE · Timken Company
75.50
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.55
4 Jul 2025
Entry
TRIB NASDAQ · Trinity Biotech plc
22.50
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.06
4 Jul 2025
Exit
UAMY NYSE · United States Antimony Corporation
2.22
20% entry drawdown
-20.43%
Entry 11 Apr 2025 2.79