Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
NASDAQ ยท Equity ยท United States
ADBE
Adobe Systems Incorporated
TechnologySoftware - Application
Adobe Inc. is an American multinational computer software company. Incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in San Jose, California, it has historically specialized in software for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia, motion pictures and print. The company has expanded into digital marketing management software. Adobe has millions of users worldwide. Flagship products include: Photoshop image editing software, Adobe Illustrator vector-based illustration software, โฆ
Last updated
9 Oct 2026
Exchange
NASDAQ ยท NASDAQ
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
102,260,853,882
Fair value reference
408.48
Next-week expectancy
Undecided ยท 47.92%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-10-09, ADBE rose 7.62%, moving from 225.11 to 242.27. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and below Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 4 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -23.02 and has improved across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.58 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 47.92% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
9 Oct 2026
Latest Close
242.27
12-Week Change
7.62%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 47.92%
Signal Weeks
4 of 12
Chart views
Completed weekly prices ยท Select a view to explore the evidence.
Weekly Trend
All chart layers are hidden. Open Chart options to select a layer or choose Reset.
Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Move across either panel to inspect a week
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
Price above, support below. Both panels follow the same completed weeks. Use the controls to show or hide trend segments and support averages.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-10-09
Support is stabilising
PSI is stabilising, but the direction is not yet clear. The next completed weeks will show whether support strengthens or fades.
PSI score
52/1002 completed weeks
Recent support
+3Limited
Readings pointing the same way
50%Activity supports price
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together28/100
Moving together ยท less together
Ticker and market
The ticker reading is mixed
PSI has no clear direction. The wider market adds context, but does not change that mixed reading.
PSI
+4.0
Market togetherness
28/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Current contextTicker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Ticker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
The two readings are mixed
Neither reading gives a clear direction.
Current reading
+0.58
Four-week change
-0.52
Sharemaestro ยท ADBE ยท Weekly price reversals
RMI Reversal Map Indicator
See where price breaks a previous high or low, turns back, and confirms a change in direction.
โ Broke a prior high / lowโ Closed back across the levelโฒ / โผ Reversal confirmedโ โ Confirmation levelโ Average price since the sweep (VWAP)
Observed follow-through
What happened after confirmation?
Direction-adjusted price moves from the next weekly open. Only outcomes completed by the replay date are included. Before costs; no exit rules applied. Overlapping observations are not independent trades or a forecast.
Dated observations
Setup journal
Reading the chart
The chart opens on the latest 152 weeks. Choose 52 or 104 weeks for a closer view. Only confirmed reversals are shown. Clear confirmations is the stricter starting view; All confirmations also includes reversals that did not meet every strength check. Green marks a confirmed turn up; red marks a confirmed turn down. Dashed outlines mark historical setups. A zone marks where the reversal developed; its end does not mean the whole price move ended. Select a journal entry to review a past setup, or use the replay slider to see what was known at an earlier close.
Annotations adds dates and explanations for every visible zone. A separate Follow-up complete marker shows when eight weeks of tracking finished. The price move may continue beyond it. The numbered notes below the chart also let you select a zone to inspect it. Confirmed reversals can fail; failed setups stay in the history. Follow-through figures describe past price moves before costs; they are not a forecast or trading record.
Results use completed weekly prices. Missing or revised source data can affect the saved history.
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
The completed weekly close is on the lower side of the envelope. A centre recovery and improving confirmation would be the first signs of repair.
Position
30%Below the adaptive centre
Pressure
-29Cautious
Confirmation
80%Broad confirmation
Underlying support
Market Dynamics context
Use the envelope for price location and Market Dynamics to see whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Supportive Market DynamicsCautious Market DynamicsNeutral line
APE and support read
Support is improving beneath lower-envelope price
Price remains on the lower side of APE, but Market Dynamics is constructive. This is an early repair condition rather than confirmation until price responds.
Current reading
+0.58
Four-week change
-0.52
Current path
Weakening
Confirmation checks
What supports or challenges the current read
A band touch is context, not a conclusion. These independent checks show whether the completed-week move has broader support.
Envelope pathCautious30% of the envelope
Price location and the direction of the adaptive centre are read together.
Trend LineCautiousBelow and falling
Checks whether completed-week price and the primary trend are moving in the same direction.
Market DynamicsMixed+0.58 ยท -0.52 over 4 weeks
Tests whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Relative strengthCautious-23.0 ยท -3.4 over 4 weeks
Shows whether the listing is strengthening or weakening against its stored comparison benchmark.
ParticipationMixed0.94ร recent volume
Checks whether the current move is attracting more participation than recent completed weeks.
Completed-week analysis
How to interpret this envelope now
Price position
Below the adaptive centre
The latest close sits at 30% of the current lower-to-upper envelope span and has held this state for 5 completed weeks.
Envelope width
Envelope width is typical
Current width ranks at the 59th percentile of the recent completed-week history. Compression can precede expansion but does not determine direction.
Evidence agreement
Broad confirmation
80% of the available trend, support, relative-strength and participation checks agree with or do not contradict the current envelope pressure.
What to watch next
Persistence, repair or rejection
Watch completed closes around the adaptive centre (288.87), upper boundary (336.09) and lower boundary (202.69).
Recent completed events
What changed around the envelope
Lower repair
Price moved back inside the envelope after a lower break.
Lower-envelope break
Price closed beneath the adaptive lower boundary.
Lower repair
Price moved back inside the envelope after a lower break.
Lower-envelope break
Price closed beneath the adaptive lower boundary.
Lower repair
Price moved back inside the envelope after a lower break.
Lower-envelope break
Price closed beneath the adaptive lower boundary.
Auction Intelligence
Sharemaestro market acceptance
Auction Intelligence
Where the market has accepted value, how that value is moving, and which price pathways remain structurally open.
The auction map
Price path and acceptance geometry
Price shows the journey; the profile shows where that journey developed durable market memory.
Value migration-28.9%
Recent centre versus prior year
Value breadth137.5%
Width of the accepted-value range
Supporting evidence
Acceptance migration and auction runway
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The downside is in price discovery while established market memory remains above.
Above250.80Established market memory sits 3.5% above the latest close.
BelowOpen discoveryNo established acceptance shelf is visible in this direction inside the three-year range.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above451.53
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet250.80
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below190.12
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
250.80
3.5%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
306.82
26.6%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
353.50
45.9%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
512.21
111.4%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
586.90
142.3%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Within accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Lower
30-week trendThe latest close is 0.2% below the trend line.Price below
Fair-value positionMarket price is 40.7% below the current fair-value reference.Below
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Demand column rising
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Earnings ahead
Accepted value migrating lower
Price remains within the broader value area while the recent acceptance centre moves lower.
More open below
The downside is in price discovery while established market memory remains above.
Established market memory
The three-year acceptance centre at 250.80 remains the dominant rotational reference.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
3 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
Current weekly interpretationAdvancing structure with indecisive week
Recent completed price swings are progressing higher on both sides of the range. Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Full context ยท Mixed confirmation
Current structureAdvancing structure
Recent completed price swings are progressing higher on both sides of the range.
Trend relationshipBelow a falling trend
Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Support and resistanceSupport 241.51 ยท Resistance 325.70
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
Participation qualityNormal participation
Participation was broadly consistent with the market's completed recent history.
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move+1.93%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterIndecisive week
The open and close finished close together, showing limited control by either side.
Where the week closedNear the weekly high
The close finished at 84% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityMixed confirmation
Recent price structure and the longer trend relationship are not fully aligned.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are progressing higher on both sides of the range.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is below a falling trend; participation is normal participation, and path quality is mixed confirmation.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history10% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-64.8%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+24.1%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical0.6ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Trend lost
The weekly close moved below the completed trend reference.
2 weeks ago
Price Action signal
A completed Price Action confirmation was published.
8 weeks ago
Support structure lost
The weekly close moved below the preceding completed price structure.
16 weeks ago
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
30 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateInside accepted value
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
52-week position
30.0%
Low to high
Accepted price
251.24
Latest versus accepted: -3.57%
Fitted direction
Falling
-1.07% per week
Range pressure
52/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Normal
0.85ร normal range
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Structural price levels, distance from close and supporting evidence
Reference
Price
From close
Evidence
Touches
Support
190.12
-21.5%
51/100
2
Support
231.74
-4.4%
40/100
1
Resistance
245.42
1.3%
97/100
5
Resistance
259.97
7.3%
72/100
2
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionInside accepted value
Price is at 30.0% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionFalling
The fitted centre line is moving -1.07% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 52/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level231.74
Support is 4.3% from the latest close with 40/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current Smart Money readA repair is developing beneath price
The latest path is improving, but broader confirmation is not yet complete.
Momentum 0.38 ยท Improving
Trend qualityRepairing
The current trend state has persisted for 1 completed week; visible confirmation is repairing.
Momentum pathSoft ยท Improving
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalAccumulation
The latest accumulation marker was 1 completed week ago.
Risk and warningsNormal
Earlier warnings are outside the recent completed-week window.
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
Momentum is improving, providing an early sign of repair beneath the current price path.
What would improve it
Broader agreement between price, trend and the completed-week support state would strengthen the case.
What could weaken it
A weakening momentum path or a new reversal marker would reduce the quality of the current setup.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Accumulation
Underlying support was identified as building.
4 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
110 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
118 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
136 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
139 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Market Dynamics is improving ahead of price
Price is +7.6% across this view and is in the lower part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is 0.58 after a -0.52 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. Support is improving before price has provided the same confirmation.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-24Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
At accumulation for 5 completed weeks
The accumulation reading is confirmed. An upward exit starts the next journey toward distribution.
Current journey
No active journey
Activated
Not active
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. ADBE is currently in the accumulation area, but a new transition does not begin until price leaves a confirmed zone. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Accumulation 254.41Distribution 575.51
A dark-zone close or two consecutive light-zone closes confirms residence. A completed close moving out of confirmed accumulation starts a journey toward distribution; an exit from confirmed distribution starts the reverse journey. Time in each zone is retained before the next transition begins.
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyDistribution to Accumulation ยท Confirmed accumulation
2024-02-16โ2026-03-20 ยท 110 completed weeks ยท price move -54.6%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 0 reached distribution and 1 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Distribution to AccumulationConfirmed accumulation
2024-02-16โ2026-03-20 ยท journey 110w ยท source dwell 5w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
-54.6%
Time to confirm
110w
Reached and confirmed accumulation after 110 completed weeks. Price moved -54.6% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Current stateEarnings ahead
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 11 updates.
Spread
Stable
Persistence
11 quarters
Confirmation
Broad support
Repricing pressure
High โ earnings-led
Market move-55.2%
Three-year change
Earnings move44.5%
Three-year change
Repricing spread99.7 pts
stable
Current valuation10.9ร
Price relative to earnings power
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
5 of 6 available business-quality checks are supportive.
EarningsRevenueCash generation
Cash conversionWhether reported profit is supported by free cash generation.Supportive
Revenue directionWhether top-line progress supports the earnings direction.Supportive
Free-cash-flow directionWhether free cash flow is improving with earnings.Supportive
Accrual pressureLower accrual pressure is a cleaner confirmation of earnings.Mixed
Comparable outcomes use the available three-year peer history, are descriptive, include overlapping periods and are not a forecast.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Confirmed compounding
Earnings ahead
Related repricing signals
SAPEarnings-led36.9 pts
CDNSEarnings-led28.3 pts
TYLEarnings-led40.4 pts
NOWEarnings-led21.3 pts
PAYXEarnings-led21.2 pts
CRMEarnings-led49.5 pts
DOCUEarnings-led13.5 pts
ADPEarnings-led11.1 pts
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current Price Cycle readNegative pressure is historically weak and weakening
Negative pressure is elevated relative to the completed history. Negative pressure is becoming more forceful across the recent completed path.
-40.69% ยท Historically weak ยท Weakening
Market positionHistorically weak
Negative pressure is elevated relative to the completed history.
Pressure directionWeakening
Negative pressure is becoming more forceful across the recent completed path.
Trend qualityPersistent
Directional progress remains visible despite some interruption.
Risks and warningsWeakness accelerating
An historically weak position is still losing ground.
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
There is limited positive pressure; the reading needs improvement before it offers dependable support.
What would improve it
A sustained recovery toward balance, followed by positive pressure, would strengthen the reading.
What could weaken it
An historically weak position is still losing ground.
What to watch next
The latest path is weakening with persistent trend quality. Comparable history is mixed follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionLower 8% of history
The latest reading is weaker than 92% of completed observations.
State persistence83 completed weeks
The current historically weak state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyMixed follow-through
Across 99 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 54% of the time; the typical move was +1.3%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Deep weakness
Negative pressure entered an historically weak position.
2 weeks ago
Price Action signal
A completed Price Action signal was published from a weak market-perception position.
8 weeks ago
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
13 weeks ago
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
19 weeks ago
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
24 weeks ago
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
31 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Read who has control, whether that control is strengthening, and which price levels would change the picture.
Price, VWAP structure and control transfers
Where control changed
156 completed weeks ยท Reported weekly volume
Price and its referencesThe navy line is price. Compare it with the VWAP lines to see whether it is holding above or below areas of volume-weighted trading.
Control over timeGreen, blue and rose backgrounds mark buyer control, contested conditions and seller control. Circles mark completed changes in control.
Strength of controlThe lower panel follows pressure through the same weeks. Higher readings favour buyers; lower readings favour sellers. This is a strength reading, not a probability.
Control backgroundBuyer controlContestedSeller control
Pressure through time ยท green above 60: buyer control ยท blue between 40 and 60: contested ยท rose below 40: seller control.
Current controlControl is contested
Price is above the core VWAP, which is broadly flat. 70% of recent weighted activity has been accepted above it.
Pressure 41/100 and -19.8 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack2 of 7 below price
6 references converge near 245.58: 26-week VWAP, Latest earnings VWAP, High-activity anchor, Swing high, Year VWAP, 13-week VWAP.
Acceptance70% above
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Core direction+0.0% / week
Four-week direction; change in pace +0.1 pts.
Stretch0.1 normal ranges above
Price is +1.1% from the core VWAP.
Persistence1 completed week
Price has remained above the core VWAP.
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
01 ยท Control trajectoryControl transfer beginning
Price has completed its first move back above the core VWAP; acceptance and the next retest now matter.
02 ยท Price and pressurePrice and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
03 ยท Reference concentrationVWAP cluster present
6 references converge near 245.58: 26-week VWAP, Latest earnings VWAP, High-activity anchor, Swing high, Year VWAP, 13-week VWAP.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation245.58
A completed close above Latest earnings VWAP with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area239.59
26-week VWAP at 239.59, 1.1% below the latest close.
Weakening level239.59
A completed close below 26-week VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
View exact VWAP reference values
VWAP references relative to the latest close
Reference
Price
From close
26-week VWAP
239.59
-1.11%
Latest earnings VWAP
245.58
+1.36%
High-activity anchor
235.85
-2.65%
Swing high
250.16
+3.26%
Year VWAP
250.91
+3.56%
13-week VWAP
251.39
+3.77%
52-week VWAP
264.90
+9.34%
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 31%Above price 70%
38%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท QQQWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -49.0 points.
Buyers firmly in control ยท 90/100
Sector ยท TechnologyBroadly aligned with reference
Broadly aligned with reference; control-score gap +1.3 points.
Seller control developing ยท 40/100
Industry ยท Software - ApplicationBroadly aligned with reference
Broadly aligned with reference; control-score gap -4.7 points.
Control is contested ยท 46/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim0% favourable
Events
4
Median 4w
-7.66%
Median 13w
-17.51%
Typical best
-3.11%
Typical worst
-22.39%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss100% favourable
Events
4
Median 4w
-9.62%
Median 13w
-15.17%
Typical best
-0.50%
Typical worst
-15.17%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states6 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
17%
Median 4w
-7.66%
Positive after 13w
0%
Median 13w
-23.17%
Best / worst 13w
-2.1% / -33.6%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
VWAP structure turned higher
The fast VWAP crossed above the core VWAP.
Buyer pressure established
The completed control reading moved into positive territory.
Buyer pressure established
The completed control reading moved into positive territory.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.34 ยท Fragile
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
Current SMI readUnderlying support is fragile, but repair has begun
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.34 ยท Fragile
Current stateFragile ยท 0.34
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionImproving
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceDeveloping
7 completed weeks in the current state
Price relationshipMixed relationship
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message.
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have produced mixed historical outcomes
Across 24 comparable completed observations, 50.0% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was -1.9%.
Comparable observations
24Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
50.0%After 13 completed weeks
Median move
-1.9%Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+4.0 ptsDifference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
9 Oct 2026
Latest Close
242.27
12-Week Change
7.62%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 47.92%
Signal Weeks
4 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Below
Vs Fair Value
Below
Relative Strength
-23.02
Market Dynamics
0.58
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-10-09, ADBE rose 7.62%, moving from 225.11 to 242.27. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and below Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 4 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -23.02 and has improved across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.58 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 47.92% based on similar historical setup states.
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