Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
483.76
Total Return
383.76%
CAGR
56.75% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.30%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.67 Sortino 5.20
Current Holdings
1117
Transactions
10719 Avg 3056.2/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4801 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.4% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
28
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19 MD 0.14 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.44 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11 MD 1.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
16
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54 20% entry drawdown · -64.86%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78 Reversal Risk Warning · 52.99%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 691-720 of 1117 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
NDLS NASDAQ · Noodles & Company
27 Mar 20269.20
12.53
36.20%
Buy
0.34
-
-
NEO NASDAQ · NeoGenomics Inc
29 Aug 20258.78
14.11
60.71%
Buy
0.47
-
-
NEOG NASDAQ · Neogen Corporation
7 Nov 20256.40
9.62
50.31%
Buy
1.27
-
-
NERV NASDAQ · Minerva Neurosciences Inc
22 Aug 20252.44
4.72
93.84%
Buy
1.33
-
-
NEXT NASDAQ · Nextdecade Corp
20 Feb 20265.48
7.99
45.80%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NGNE NASDAQ · Neurogene Inc
2 May 202516.97
39.63
133.53%
Buy
0.20
-
-
NIO NYSE · Nio Inc Class A ADR
1 Aug 20255.01
4.78
-4.59%
Buy
1.63
-
-
NIXX NASDAQ · Nixxy, Inc.
26 Jun 20261.32
1.28
-3.03%
Buy
1.57
-
-
NKE NYSE · Nike Inc
3 Jul 202644.09
44.37
0.64%
Buy
0.29
-
-
NKTX NASDAQ · Nkarta Inc
22 May 20263.03
2.97
-1.98%
Buy
1.14
-
-
NMAX NYSE · Newsmax, Inc.
17 Apr 20266.95
8.23
18.42%
Buy
1.33
-
-
NMP NASDAQ · NMP Acquisition Corp.
1 May 202610.19
10.28
0.88%
Buy
2.46
-
-
NNBR NASDAQ · NN Inc
30 Jan 20261.49
3.48
133.56%
Buy
0.18
-
-
NNDM NASDAQ · Nano Dimension Ltd
11 Jul 20251.58
1.50
-5.06%
Buy
0.14
-
-
NOA NYSE · North American Construction Group Ltd
24 Oct 202514.96
13.67
-8.60%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NOG NYSE · Northern Oil & Gas Inc
12 Dec 202521.82
18.52
-15.13%
Buy
0.07
-
-
NOMA NASDAQ · NOMADAR Corp. Class A Common Stock
22 May 20263.60
3.11
-13.75%
Buy
0.33
-
-
NOMD NYSE · Nomad Foods Ltd
5 Jun 20269.91
11.53
16.35%
Buy
0.05
-
-
NOVT NASDAQ · Novanta Inc
30 May 2025123.82
156.65
26.51%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NOW NYSE · ServiceNow Inc
22 May 2026102.13
107.71
5.46%
Buy
0.41
-
-
NRT NYSE · North European Oil Royalty Trust
26 Sep 20255.25
7.31
39.22%
Buy
0.56
-
-
NRXP NASDAQ · NRX Pharmaceuticals Inc
10 Apr 20262.22
4.19
88.74%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NSIT NASDAQ · Insight Enterprises Inc
22 May 202697.73
119.81
22.59%
Buy
1.28
-
-
NSP NYSE · Insperity Inc
8 May 202632.02
45.51
42.15%
Buy
0.09
-
-
NSSC NASDAQ · NAPCO Security Technologies Inc
16 May 202527.30
36.07
32.12%
Buy
0.11
-
-
NTIC NASDAQ · Northern Technologies
4 Jul 20258.25
8.15
-1.20%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NTLA NASDAQ · Intellia Therapeutics Inc
20 Feb 202612.64
14.22
12.46%
Buy
0.15
-
-
NTNX NASDAQ · Nutanix Inc
24 Apr 202640.56
54.79
35.08%
Buy
0.02
-
-
NVAX NASDAQ · Novavax Inc
30 May 20257.34
9.33
27.11%
Buy
0.03
-
-
NVCR NASDAQ · Novocure Ltd
1 May 202616.62
16.30
-1.93%
Buy
0.19
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 2191-2220 of 10719
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
6 Mar 2026
Entry
CCCC NASDAQ · C4 Therapeutics Inc
3.04
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.14
6 Mar 2026
Entry
CJMB NASDAQ · Callan JMB Inc. Common Stock
1.80
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.03
6 Mar 2026
Exit
CODA NASDAQ · Coda Octopus Group Inc
14.40
Reversal Risk Warning
105.13%
Entry 10 May 2024 7.02
6 Mar 2026
Entry
CRCL NYSE · Circle Internet Group, Inc.
101.91
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.08
6 Mar 2026
Entry
CRE NASDAQ · Cre8 Enterprise Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
4.53
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.54
6 Mar 2026
Entry
CRTO NASDAQ · Criteo Sa
19.74
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.15
6 Mar 2026
Exit
CSTE NASDAQ · Caesarstone Ltd
0.80
20% entry drawdown
-46.55%
Entry 28 Nov 2025 1.50
6 Mar 2026
Entry
CUPR NASDAQ · Cuprina Holdings (Cayman) Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
3.07
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.18
6 Mar 2026
Entry
DFSC NASDAQ · DEFSEC Technologies Inc.
2.33
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.09
6 Mar 2026
Exit
DTE NYSE · DTE Energy Company
147.41
Reversal Risk Warning
50.03%
Entry 1 Dec 2023 98.25
6 Mar 2026
Entry
EDSA NASDAQ · Edesa Biotech Inc
6.52
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.04
6 Mar 2026
Exit
ESLT NASDAQ · Elbit Systems Ltd
935.14
Reversal Risk Warning
163.72%
Entry 7 Mar 2025 354.60
6 Mar 2026
Exit
EVTV NASDAQ · Envirotech Vehicles Inc
1.31
20% entry drawdown
-32.47%
Entry 23 Jan 2026 1.94
6 Mar 2026
Exit
FBGL NASDAQ · FBS Global Limited Ordinary Shares
0.38
20% entry drawdown
-38.89%
Entry 29 Aug 2025 0.62
6 Mar 2026
Exit
FIGS NYSE · Figs Inc
16.42
Reversal Risk Warning
222.59%
Entry 6 Jun 2025 5.09
6 Mar 2026
Exit
FTCI NASDAQ · FTC Solar Inc
4.16
20% entry drawdown
-41.49%
Entry 12 Sep 2025 7.11
6 Mar 2026
Exit
GASS NASDAQ · StealthGas Inc
10.16
Reversal Risk Warning
96.33%
Entry 4 Aug 2023 5.18
6 Mar 2026
Exit
GWH NYSE · ESS Tech Inc
1.30
20% entry drawdown
-24.42%
Entry 3 Oct 2025 1.72
6 Mar 2026
Entry
IMTE NASDAQ · Integrated Media Technology Ltd
0.62
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.16
6 Mar 2026
Exit
KROS NASDAQ · Keros Therapeutics Inc
11.30
20% entry drawdown
-29.60%
Entry 26 Sep 2025 16.05
6 Mar 2026
Entry
MVO NYSE · MV Oil Trust
2.37
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.55
6 Mar 2026
Entry
NMAX NYSE · Newsmax, Inc.
7.63
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.16
6 Mar 2026
Exit
NPK NYSE · National Presto Industries Inc
136.50
Reversal Risk Warning
83.76%
Entry 4 Aug 2023 74.28
6 Mar 2026
Exit
NRDY NYSE · Nerdy Inc
0.88
20% entry drawdown
-21.37%
Entry 23 Jan 2026 1.12
6 Mar 2026
Entry
OBA NASDAQ · Oxley Bridge Acquisition Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
10.12
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.75
6 Mar 2026
Exit
OEC NYSE · Orion Engineered Carbons SA
4.91
20% entry drawdown
-22.41%
Entry 16 Jan 2026 6.33
6 Mar 2026
Exit
PAMT NASDAQ · PAMT CORP
9.77
20% entry drawdown
-22.09%
Entry 26 Dec 2025 12.54
6 Mar 2026
Entry
PCAP NASDAQ · ProCap Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Shares
10.20
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.49
6 Mar 2026
Entry
PRTS NASDAQ · CarParts.Com Inc
7.47
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.17
6 Mar 2026
Entry
PSFE NYSE · Paysafe Ltd
7.55
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.12