Events

Predictions

Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.

Probability Surge

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

74.0% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 74.0%. 24h move +11.0 pts. 7d move +11.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +11.0 pts
7d +11.0 pts
Volume 9K
Quality 41/100
Probability Fade

Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?

Polymarket · Technology

17.5% probability

Technology expectation is falling at 17.5%. 24h move -23.5 pts. 7d move -26.0 pts. Data quality 30/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -23.5 pts
7d -26.0 pts
Volume 89
Quality 30/100
Probability Fade

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

80.5% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 80.5%. 24h move -11.0 pts. 7d move +7.5 pts. Data quality 32/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -11.0 pts
7d +7.5 pts
Volume 902
Quality 32/100
Probability Fade

Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

28.5% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 28.5%. 24h move -1.5 pts. 7d move -22.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -1.5 pts
7d -22.0 pts
Volume 9K
Quality 42/100
Probability Fade

Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

51.0% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 51.0%. 24h move -5.0 pts. 7d move -6.5 pts. Data quality 41/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -5.0 pts
7d -6.5 pts
Volume 9K
Quality 41/100
Probability Surge

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

32.0% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 32.0%. 24h move +5.0 pts. 7d move -7.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +5.0 pts
7d -7.0 pts
Volume 10K
Quality 41/100
High Conviction

Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

87.0% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 87.0%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 36/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

24h +0.5 pts
7d -0.5 pts
Volume 930
Quality 36/100