Events

Predictions

Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.

Probability Fade

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Polymarket · Energy

1.8% probability

Energy expectation is falling at 1.8%. 24h move -12.6 pts. 7d move -14.6 pts. Data quality 61/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -12.6 pts
7d -14.6 pts
Volume 915K
Quality 61/100
Probability Surge

Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

89.5% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 89.5%. 24h move +50.0 pts. 7d move +50.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +50.0 pts
7d +50.0 pts
Volume 10K
Quality 44/100
Probability Surge

Will Scott DesJarlais be the TN-04 Republican nominee?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

93.5% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 93.5%. 24h move +10.0 pts. 7d move +10.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +10.0 pts
7d +10.0 pts
Volume 964
Quality 42/100
Probability Surge

Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

15.3% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 15.3%. 24h move +5.6 pts. 7d move -17.6 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +5.6 pts
7d -17.6 pts
Volume 9K
Quality 44/100
Probability Fade

Will Bea Valenti be the FL-14 Republican nominee?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

2.6% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 2.6%. 24h move -14.8 pts. 7d move -14.8 pts. Data quality 31/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -14.8 pts
7d -14.8 pts
Volume 89
Quality 31/100
Probability Surge

Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?

Polymarket · Politics & Policy

84.5% probability

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 84.5%. 24h move +29.0 pts. 7d move +32.0 pts. Data quality 31/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +29.0 pts
7d +32.0 pts
Volume 96
Quality 31/100