Ticker Options Intelligence

NBIS options intelligence

Nebius Group N.V. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 44 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 17:07 · partial chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

NBIS currently carries mixed options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.13.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 14.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.13

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.10

Balanced tape

Trend fit 87

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +1.4%

RS 37.0

Expected move 14.8%
Put-call volume 1.10
Volume / OI 0.13
Reference IV 1.33
Max pain 175.00
Underlying 190.41
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 2000

Research Brief

NBIS has a mixed chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 162.16–218.66; The largest call open-interest concentration is 220.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 150.00.

Priced range162.16–218.66
Call concentration220.00
Put concentration170.00
Max pain reference175.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 162.16 to 218.66. Max pain at 175.00 sits inside that range, 8.1% below spot.

Spot Max pain
162.16190.41 ± 28.25218.66
Confirmation level

A close beyond 218.66 or below 162.16 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 44/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 6/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure6 × 42%
+2.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation43 × 22%
+9.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement87 × 26%
+22.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score44.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 220.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 150.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6984
90.00-52.7%
3
7485
105.00-44.9%
0
1097
120.00-37.0%
13
1561
125.00-34.4%
19
5506
130.00-31.7%
35
6542
135.00-29.1%
86
3482
140.00-26.5%
25
6670
150.00-21.2%
3273
1411
155.00-18.6%
1898
892
160.00-16.0%
1906
759
165.00-13.3%
1323
20786
170.00-10.7%
1377
974
190.00-0.2%
678
2670
192.501.1%
2791
521
200.005.0%
1829
247
220.0015.5%
4955
151
250.0031.3%
2846
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.15× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.33 7 Aug 7d
1.51 14 Aug 14d
1.44 21 Aug 21d
1.38 28 Aug 28d
1.34 4 Sep 35d
1.29 11 Sep 42d
1.27 18 Sep 49d
1.23 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

153
158
160
163
168
173
175
178
183
188
190
193
198
203
205
208
213
218
220
223
228
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain89%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
2000 / 2252
  • 89% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

93/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $196.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-6
1W price+1.4%
Call premium71%
Put premium29%
Notional split C 71% / P 29% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.13 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 87/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 8683 contracts traded, $28.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$28.5M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 5526 contracts traded, $18.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$18.1M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 6142 contracts traded, $15.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$15.9M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 3979 contracts traded, $14.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$14.8M
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 9100 contracts traded, $12.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$12.1M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close190.41
1W+1.4%
RS37.0
Fair value+216.9%
Options pressure-6
Speculation43
Volatility96
Trend fit87

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.33 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.10 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.13 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:07 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 14.2%
30 Jul 10:49 Volatility
Pressure -16
Move 22.0%
31 Jul 10:02 Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 7.3%
31 Jul 13:51 Volatility
Pressure 5
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 15:38 Volatility
Pressure 9
Move 4.0%
31 Jul 16:11 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 3.5%
31 Jul 16:57 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 3.2%
31 Jul 17:34 Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 2.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 78 · OI 1761
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 2616 · OI 6984
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 187 · OI 653
Strike97.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 19 · OI 7
Strike98.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 16 · OI 2
Strike99.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2545 · OI 6
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 1650 · OI 1910
Strike101.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 14

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts258
Avg IV1.33
Put-call1.33
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts222
Avg IV1.51
Put-call0.78
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts158
Avg IV1.44
Put-call1.22
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV1.38
Put-call2.15
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV1.34
Put-call2.14

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.29
Put IV1.41
Skew0.12
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.51
Put IV1.54
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.39
Put IV1.45
Skew0.06
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.33
Put IV1.40
Skew0.07
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.31
Put IV1.38
Skew0.07

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNBIS260807P00150000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume6016
OI6670
IV1.50
ContractNBIS260807C00220000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume4358
OI4955
IV1.29
ContractNBIS260807P00160000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume4149
OI892
IV1.46
ContractNBIS260807P00120000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike120.00
Volume4093
OI1097
IV1.78
ContractNBIS260807C00200000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume3865
OI1829
IV1.31
ContractNBIS260814C00170000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike170.00
Volume3296
OI147
IV1.58
ContractNBIS260807C00150000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume3276
OI3273
IV1.63
ContractNBIS260807P00140000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume3136
OI3482
IV1.58

Research Graph

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