Polymarket · Politics & Policy
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 95.2% on a high-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 95.2%. 24h move +0.7 pts. 7d move -0.1 pts. Data quality 64/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.
Probability
95.2%
Signal
High Conviction
Score
33
Freshness
4m
Probability history
Expectation over time
Volume 989.4K
Liquidity 165.1K
Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy
Why it ranks here
Quality63.6
Momentum3.0
Urgency25.0
7d Move-0.1 pts
Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 95.2%. 24h move +0.7 pts. 7d move -0.1 pts. Data quality 64/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.
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