Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

Politics & Policy expectations are steady at 40.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 40.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move -26.5 pts. Data quality 46/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 40.5%
Signal Probability Fade
Score 36
Freshness 4m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 8.8K Liquidity 7.2K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality45.7
Momentum30.0
Urgency25.0
7d Move-26.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 40.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move -26.5 pts. Data quality 46/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Same theme
Will "Little House on the Prairie:Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? 3.0% · Probability Fade · score 61 Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? 99.8% · Probability Surge · score 60 Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in July? 18.4% · Probability Fade · score 60 Will Nina Warken be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)? 2.1% · Probability Fade · score 57 Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? 11.8% · Probability Fade · score 56 Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 20, 2026? 20.7% · Probability Fade · score 55