PKG NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Packaging Corp of America · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

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Latest close 254.4 USD
9.1% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 14.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 9.1%, after a 5.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 36/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 61/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; earnings are due in 81d.

Setup score 69 out of 100
Latest Close 254.4 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 9.1% latest completed week
4W Return 5.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return 17.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 75.0% 39 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 13-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 11 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 9.1% Latest completed week; four-week move 5.3%. Indicator stack 86/69 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 36/100 conviction; expected move 5.9%. News sentiment 61/100 39 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 81d Next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 14.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 9.1%, after a 5.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.6x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7412-week average 0.49

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership4/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.74Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers1111 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 11 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 5.3% over four weeks, 17.4% over 12 weeks, and 26.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 13 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W9.1%
4W5.3%
12W17.4%
26W14.3%
52W26.2%
Active trend streak13 weeks
Active weeks in one year39
Trend breadth75.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.83Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change55.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership10.52Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change64.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength20/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Value19/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Quality34/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Momentum73/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Growth27/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework27/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
32.8x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.4x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
9.0%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
20.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
11.7%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
25.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
9.8%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
10.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-23.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

PKG shows bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.67, expected move of 5.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction36/100
Expected move5.9%
Put/call volume0.67
Pressure29
Speculation8
Volatility44
Trend agreement66
Open options detail
Insider activity13 / 7

13 acquisitions and 7 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment61/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 39 relevant articles.

21 positive · 16 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings81dNext report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move5.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.1%Week of 24 Jul.
Worst week-5.6%Week of 15 May.
Latest week+9.1%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split30/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.0% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape69/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 69/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis56/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 4/12.

Activity pressure 0.74; 11 reversal markers Factors34/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 32 SVQF27/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 735.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options58/100

PKG shows bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.67, expected move of 5.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 5.9% Sentiment61/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 39 relevant articles.

Argus Research Adjusts Packaging of America Price Target to $274 From $251, Maintains Buy Rating Insiders13 / 7

13 acquisitions and 7 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings81d

Next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow2 items

2 recent research articles and 0 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 2026254.4 USD9.1%222.1 USD191.3 USD0.8310.525.3MOn
17 Jul 2026233.1 USD1.9%220.5 USD190.6 USD0.700.812.6MOn
10 Jul 2026228.8 USD-4.0%219.4 USD189.9 USD0.75-2.583.0MOn
3 Jul 2026238.2 USD-1.4%218.4 USD189.2 USD0.762.682.0MOn
26 Jun 2026241.6 USD5.5%217.0 USD188.5 USD0.546.383.2MOn
19 Jun 2026229.0 USD1.0%215.6 USD187.7 USD0.16-1.373.0MOn
12 Jun 2026226.8 USD2.4%214.5 USD187.0 USD-0.20-1.464.0MOn
5 Jun 2026221.4 USD1.8%213.3 USD186.4 USD-0.56-3.292.5MOn
29 May 2026217.5 USD1.4%212.5 USD185.7 USD-0.61-7.483.7MOn
22 May 2026214.5 USD1.8%211.7 USD185.1 USD-0.62-7.623.2MOn
15 May 2026210.7 USD-5.6%211.2 USD184.4 USD-0.57-8.662.8MOn
8 May 2026223.1 USD3.0%210.9 USD183.9 USD-0.54-3.283.4MOn
1 May 2026216.6 USD2.4%210.2 USD183.2 USD-0.68-3.965.3MOn
24 Apr 2026211.5 USD-0.2%210.0 USD182.6 USD-0.81-5.505.5MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.