- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
MGPI
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
MGP Ingredients Inc · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Latest close
17.69 USD
-1.0%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -10.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 12.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.0%, after a 3.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 46/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 0d.
Setup score
23
out of 100
Latest Close
17.69 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-1.0%
latest completed week
4W Return
3.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-8.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
0.0%
0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 41.56% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-1.0%
Latest completed week; four-week move 3.3%.
Indicator stack
0/48
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 41.56%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
46/100 conviction; expected move 15.7%.
News sentiment
52/100
43 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
0d
Next report is scheduled for 30 Jul 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -10.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 12.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.0%, after a 3.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2012-week average 0.12
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure5/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.20Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 3.3% over four weeks, -8.2% over 12 weeks, and -43.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.05Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-34.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-27.86Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change23.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 87%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength52/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 49; rank 1 is best.
Value89/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 12; rank 1 is best.
Quality15/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Momentum7/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Growth14/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.7x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 18.7% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 36.4% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -51.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 22.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -24.2% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -20.4% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -37.5% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.7% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.2% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 2.9% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -1.0x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
MGPI shows volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.16, expected move of 15.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction46/100
Expected move15.7%
Put/call volume0.16
Insider activity9 / 2
9 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 43 relevant articles.
10 positive · 28 neutral · 5 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings0dNext report is scheduled for 30 Jul 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move15.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-43.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+12.7%Week of 27 Mar.
Worst week-26.7%Week of 27 Feb.
Latest week-1.0%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split19/33Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.2% / -3.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Defensive
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.3%
Trend breadth49.0%
Trend49.0%active weekly trend signals
MD58.0%positive activity pressure
RS33.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
4-week rank4 / 11
Group average-4.1%
Trend breadth9.1%
Trend9.1%active weekly trend signals
MD54.5%positive activity pressure
RS0.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape19/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 19/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis21/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 5/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.20; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 41.56%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 41.56% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors40/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 39; Small Cap Core rank 15 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options34/100MGPI shows volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.16, expected move of 15.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 15.7% Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 43 relevant articles.
US55303JAB2 Bond Coupon Profile — Rate & Payments Insiders9 / 29 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings0dNext report is scheduled for 30 Jul 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 17.69 USD | -1.0% | 19.79 USD | 51.57 USD | 0.05 | -27.86 | 685.1K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 17.86 USD | 4.7% | 20.00 USD | 52.16 USD | 0.19 | -29.44 | 931.4K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 17.06 USD | 0.5% | 20.19 USD | 52.75 USD | 0.07 | -36.30 | 875.0K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 16.98 USD | -0.9% | 20.48 USD | 53.32 USD | 0.08 | -36.50 | 1.1M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 17.13 USD | 4.2% | 20.76 USD | 53.87 USD | 0.08 | -36.48 | 1.6M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 16.44 USD | -0.4% | 20.94 USD | 54.41 USD | -0.23 | -42.63 | 930.8K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 16.50 USD | -0.1% | 21.14 USD | 54.91 USD | -0.35 | -41.83 | 829.6K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 16.51 USD | -6.5% | 21.41 USD | 55.44 USD | -0.47 | -41.35 | 939.6K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 17.65 USD | -2.2% | 21.69 USD | 55.96 USD | -0.53 | -40.95 | 659.2K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 18.05 USD | -1.0% | 21.90 USD | 56.47 USD | -0.46 | -38.79 | 788.1K | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 18.23 USD | -6.9% | 22.09 USD | 56.93 USD | -0.42 | -38.40 | 882.4K | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 19.57 USD | 1.5% | 22.29 USD | 57.45 USD | -0.40 | -35.16 | 888.3K | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 19.27 USD | -4.1% | 22.42 USD | 57.95 USD | -0.50 | -33.78 | 1.5M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 20.09 USD | 0.9% | 22.58 USD | 58.45 USD | -0.66 | -31.00 | 890.9K | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.