FLY NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

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Latest close 19.69 USD
2.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -33.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 6.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.2%, after a -22.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 58/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 13d.

Setup score 24 out of 100
Latest Close 19.69 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 2.2% latest completed week
4W Return -22.9% short-term follow-through
12W Return -41.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 21.6% 11 of 51 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 2.2% Latest completed week; four-week move -22.9%. Indicator stack 12/10 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 58/100 conviction; expected move 11.2%. News sentiment 56/100 81 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 13d Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -33.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 6.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.2%, after a -22.9% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.4912-week average 0.62

12-week confirmation

Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.49Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -22.9% over four weeks, -41.7% over 12 weeks, and - over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W2.2%
4W-22.9%
12W-41.7%
26W-32.4%
52W-
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year11
Trend breadth21.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.55Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-370.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 79% Model confidence 76%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength61/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 40; rank 1 is best.
Value55/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Quality53/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Momentum55/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Growth55/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
17.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-5.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
19.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-194.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-88.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-32.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
70.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.2%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-36.4%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-36.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.8x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

FLY shows volatility options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.15, expected move of 11.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction58/100
Expected move11.2%
Put/call volume0.15
Pressure82
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend agreement18
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 81 relevant articles.

24 positive · 53 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move11.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-73.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility13.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+38.9%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-22.3%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+2.2%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses10
Recent vol13.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol14.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew10.9% / -11.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape27/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis44/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.49; 2 reversal markers Factors55/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 94; Small Cap Core rank 51 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options42/100

FLY shows volatility options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.15, expected move of 11.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 11.2% Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 81 relevant articles.

Boeing Stock Rises Even as Earnings Are Weaker Than Expected Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings13d

Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202619.69 USD2.2%29.66 USD30.33 USD-0.55-14.6MOff
17 Jul 202619.27 USD-20.0%29.78 USD30.54 USD-0.50-20.7MOff
10 Jul 202624.09 USD-16.6%29.96 USD30.77 USD-0.41-14.5MOff
3 Jul 202628.90 USD13.2%29.89 USD30.91 USD-0.18-24.2MOff
26 Jun 202625.54 USD-17.5%29.59 USD30.95 USD0.20-37.2MOn
19 Jun 202630.95 USD-2.9%29.33 USD31.07 USD0.82-34.2MOn
12 Jun 202631.87 USD-11.7%28.86 USD31.07 USD1.35-40.6MOn
5 Jun 202636.10 USD-22.3%28.56 USD31.05 USD1.76-43.5MOn
29 May 202646.49 USD-6.1%28.02 USD30.94 USD2.03-65.1MOn
22 May 202649.50 USD22.4%27.27 USD30.57 USD1.75-34.6MOn
15 May 202640.43 USD1.9%26.52 USD30.10 USD1.57-37.8MOn
8 May 202639.68 USD17.4%26.05 USD29.85 USD1.60-37.1MOn
1 May 202633.80 USD-3.8%25.68 USD29.59 USD1.65-18.9MOn
24 Apr 202635.13 USD-19.6%25.46 USD29.48 USD1.88-26.1MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.