- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
ULTA
MEX
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Ulta Beauty, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Latest close
8,855 MXN
7.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 25.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.7%, after a 11.2% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 66/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
32
out of 100
Latest Close
8,855 MXN
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
7.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
11.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-1.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
63.5%
33 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.1x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 35.17% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
7.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move 11.2%.
Indicator stack
35/46
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 35.17%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
66/100
1 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 25.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.7%, after a 11.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.1x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1612-week average 0.14
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.16Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 11.2% over four weeks, -1.9% over 12 weeks, and -9.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year33
Trend breadth63.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.43Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change43.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-12.03Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change46.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment66/100
Weighted news tone is positive across 1 relevant articles.
1 positive · 0 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-25.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher8 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.7%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-18.0%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+7.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains5
Flat weeks10
Modest losses2
Sharp losses6
Recent vol5.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split16/14Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.1% / -5.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorMX Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank13 / 97
Group average0.9%
Trend breadth25.8%
Trend25.8%active weekly trend signals
MD53.6%positive activity pressure
RS27.8%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryMX Specialty Retail
4-week rank3 / 9
Group average4.4%
Trend breadth22.2%
Trend22.2%active weekly trend signals
MD55.6%positive activity pressure
RS22.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape28/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 28/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis11/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.16; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 35.17%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 35.17% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment66/100Weighted news tone is positive across 1 relevant articles.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) A Good Stock To Buy Now? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 8,855 MXN | 7.7% | 9,749 MXN | 8,433 MXN | -0.43 | -12.03 | 26 | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 8,220 MXN | 0.0% | 9,821 MXN | 8,423 MXN | -0.60 | -18.07 | 0 | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 8,220 MXN | 0.5% | 9,894 MXN | 8,417 MXN | -0.62 | -18.77 | 42 | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 8,180 MXN | 2.8% | 9,967 MXN | 8,411 MXN | -0.70 | -19.35 | 248 | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 7,960 MXN | -7.3% | 10,041 MXN | 8,405 MXN | -0.77 | -22.49 | 522 | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 8,590 MXN | 7.7% | 10,089 MXN | 8,401 MXN | -0.91 | -16.91 | 0 | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 7,973 MXN | -0.7% | 10,117 MXN | 8,393 MXN | -1.00 | -23.67 | 0 | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 8,031 MXN | 0.2% | 10,165 MXN | 8,388 MXN | -0.89 | -23.76 | 272 | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 8,018 MXN | -9.9% | 10,219 MXN | 8,384 MXN | -0.93 | -22.15 | 0 | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 8,894 MXN | 0.0% | 10,273 MXN | 8,379 MXN | -0.80 | -17.05 | 0 | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 8,894 MXN | 3.0% | 10,298 MXN | 8,368 MXN | -0.77 | -17.04 | 821 | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 8,633 MXN | -4.4% | 10,320 MXN | 8,372 MXN | -0.84 | -19.12 | 30 | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 9,029 MXN | -8.1% | 10,367 MXN | 8,378 MXN | -0.84 | -17.73 | 687 | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 9,824 MXN | 0.0% | 10,415 MXN | 8,381 MXN | -0.98 | -7.92 | 0 | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.