MSM NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc · Industrials · Industrial Distribution

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Latest close 125.6 USD
0.7% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 24.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 93.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.7%, after a 7.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 35/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 84d.

Setup score 73 out of 100
Latest Close 125.6 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 0.7% latest completed week
4W Return 7.1% short-term follow-through
12W Return 22.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 84.6% 44 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 24-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 6 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.7% Latest completed week; four-week move 7.1%. Indicator stack 92/79 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 35/100 conviction; expected move 6.0%. News sentiment 54/100 59 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 84d Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 24.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 93.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.7%, after a 7.1% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 1.0012-week average 0.91

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure1.00Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers66 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 6 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 7.1% over four weeks, 22.4% over 12 weeks, and 48.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 24 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.7%
4W7.1%
12W22.4%
26W47.8%
52W48.0%
Active trend streak24 weeks
Active weeks in one year44
Trend breadth84.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.62Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-0.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership23.84Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change25.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Aug 2025 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength40/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 61; rank 1 is best.
Value14/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Quality67/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
Momentum84/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Growth16/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework37/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
30.4x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
17.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
40.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
8.5%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
10.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
13.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
4.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
16.2%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-14.5%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.8%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

MSM shows mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.29, expected move of 6.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction35/100
Expected move6.0%
Put/call volume1.29
Pressure-11
Speculation16
Volatility43
Trend agreement88
Open options detail
Insider activity1 / 1

1 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

15 positive · 38 neutral · 6 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move6.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-2.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility1.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher18 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+13.3%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-6.0%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+0.7%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses1
Recent vol1.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.5% / -1.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape73/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 73/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis83/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 1.00; 6 reversal markers Factors50/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 43; Small Cap Core rank 82 SVQF37/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 639.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options57/100

MSM shows mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.29, expected move of 6.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 6.0% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Looks Pricey Despite Steady Earnings Expectations Insiders1 / 1

1 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings84d

Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 2026125.6 USD0.7%100.6 USD85.98 USD1.6223.842.6MOn
17 Jul 2026124.8 USD1.4%99.26 USD85.75 USD1.7122.874.5MOn
10 Jul 2026123.0 USD0.9%97.92 USD85.52 USD1.6719.804.1MOn
3 Jul 2026121.9 USD3.9%96.66 USD85.30 USD1.6720.675.7MOn
26 Jun 2026117.3 USD-0.3%95.31 USD85.06 USD1.6219.073.8MOn
19 Jun 2026117.6 USD1.6%94.30 USD84.85 USD1.5416.993.4MOn
12 Jun 2026115.8 USD1.0%93.26 USD84.65 USD1.5216.673.7MOn
5 Jun 2026114.7 USD4.8%92.23 USD84.46 USD1.5016.553.6MOn
29 May 2026109.5 USD2.8%91.26 USD84.27 USD1.408.852.6MOn
22 May 2026106.5 USD1.8%90.36 USD84.11 USD1.517.613.3MOn
15 May 2026104.7 USD0.4%89.66 USD83.95 USD1.426.844.5MOn
8 May 2026104.3 USD1.6%88.96 USD83.81 USD1.296.802.6MOn
1 May 2026102.6 USD4.9%88.25 USD83.66 USD1.167.744.4MOn
24 Apr 202697.83 USD0.3%87.81 USD83.52 USD0.773.802.5MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.