- The trend backdrop is active with a 5-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
UGP
BUE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Ultrapar Participações S.A. · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Latest close
10,260 ARS
-0.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 28.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 97.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a 27.9% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
71
out of 100
Latest Close
10,260 ARS
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-0.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
27.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
13.6%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
98.1%
51 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.4x
vs 13-week average
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move 27.9%.
Indicator stack
71/75
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 56.51%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
54/100
15 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 28.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 97.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a 27.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.6712-week average 0.79
12-week confirmation
Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure5/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.67Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 27.9% over four weeks, 13.6% over 12 weeks, and 145.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 5 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak5 weeks
Active weeks in one year51
Trend breadth98.1%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.63Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change167.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership20.98Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1858.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.
5 positive · 10 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-1.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher13 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+17.3%Week of 10 Jul.
Worst week-9.4%Week of 29 May.
Latest week-0.5%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains10
Modest gains3
Flat weeks1
Modest losses8
Sharp losses4
Recent vol6.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.9% / -2.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAR Energy
4-week rank1 / 14
Group average6.1%
Trend breadth78.6%
Trend78.6%active weekly trend signals
MD35.7%positive activity pressure
RS50.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAR Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
4-week rank1 / 1
Group average27.9%
Trend breadth100.0%
Trend100.0%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape69/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 69/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis59/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 5/12, relative leadership 7/12.
Activity pressure 0.67; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.51%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.51% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.
Ultrapar Participacoes (NYSE:UGP) Reaches New 1-Year High - Time to Buy? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 10,260 ARS | -0.5% | 8,009 ARS | 5,331 ARS | 0.63 | 20.98 | 3.6K | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10,310 ARS | 5.0% | 7,863 ARS | 5,280 ARS | 0.41 | 23.03 | 35.6K | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 9,820 ARS | 4.4% | 7,712 ARS | 5,228 ARS | -0.13 | 21.51 | 32.1K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 9,410 ARS | 17.3% | 7,576 ARS | 5,178 ARS | -0.63 | 14.73 | 5.6K | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 8,025 ARS | 5.5% | 7,462 ARS | 5,132 ARS | -0.94 | 1.07 | 19.7K | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 7,605 ARS | 6.0% | 7,396 ARS | 5,093 ARS | -1.20 | -1.55 | 218 | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 7,175 ARS | -1.7% | 7,349 ARS | 5,058 ARS | -1.22 | -11.43 | 52 | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 7,300 ARS | 0.0% | 7,310 ARS | 5,024 ARS | -0.93 | -11.29 | 3.4K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 7,300 ARS | -4.4% | 7,274 ARS | 4,989 ARS | -0.54 | -3.26 | 229 | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 7,635 ARS | -9.4% | 7,234 ARS | 4,954 ARS | 0.32 | -0.86 | 2.1K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 8,430 ARS | -0.5% | 7,179 ARS | 4,917 ARS | 1.11 | 22.65 | 781 | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 8,475 ARS | -6.2% | 7,101 ARS | 4,873 ARS | 1.44 | 31.17 | 2.2K | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 9,035 ARS | 0.2% | 7,016 ARS | 4,830 ARS | 1.64 | 38.50 | 14.0K | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 9,015 ARS | 4.8% | 6,910 ARS | 4,782 ARS | 1.54 | 36.95 | 18.1K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.