- The trend backdrop is active with a 49-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
4578
JPX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Latest close
12,705 JPY
14.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.5%, after a 13.6% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 57/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
80
out of 100
Latest Close
12,705 JPY
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
14.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
13.6%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
13.8%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
94.2%
49 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
2.3x
vs 13-week average
- 1 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
14.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move 13.6%.
Indicator stack
97/62
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
57/100
6 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.5%, after a 13.6% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 2.3x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7512-week average 0.84
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.75Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 13.6% over four weeks, 13.8% over 12 weeks, and 63.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 49 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak49 weeks
Active weeks in one year49
Trend breadth94.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.15Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change116.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership9.17Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change215.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment57/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 6 relevant articles.
2 positive · 4 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.5%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-9.7%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+14.5%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains10
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses3
Recent vol5.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split30/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.6% / -2.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorJP Healthcare
4-week rank5 / 100
Group average1.7%
Trend breadth29.0%
Trend29.0%active weekly trend signals
MD56.0%positive activity pressure
RS13.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryJP Drug Manufacturers - General
4-week rank1 / 8
Group average-0.1%
Trend breadth25.0%
Trend25.0%active weekly trend signals
MD50.0%positive activity pressure
RS12.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape78/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 78/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis50/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 2/12.
Activity pressure 0.75; 1 reversal markers Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment57/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 6 relevant articles.
Will Otsuka’s Upgraded 2026 Guidance and Higher Dividend Change Otsuka Holdings' (TSE:4578) Narrative? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 12,705 JPY | 14.5% | 10,736 JPY | 7,747 JPY | 0.15 | 9.17 | 10.6M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 11,100 JPY | -0.5% | 10,615 JPY | 7,700 JPY | -0.25 | -2.69 | 11.6M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 11,155 JPY | 1.4% | 10,541 JPY | 7,660 JPY | -0.47 | -2.68 | 4.2M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 11,000 JPY | -1.7% | 10,473 JPY | 7,622 JPY | -0.70 | -3.29 | 5.2M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 11,185 JPY | -1.0% | 10,412 JPY | 7,583 JPY | -0.93 | -7.92 | 6.1M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 11,300 JPY | 4.7% | 10,347 JPY | 7,543 JPY | -1.18 | -8.60 | 1.3M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 10,795 JPY | 3.3% | 10,273 JPY | 7,503 JPY | -1.23 | -12.27 | 888.4K | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 10,447 JPY | 3.1% | 10,206 JPY | 7,466 JPY | -0.95 | -17.52 | 1.5M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 10,134 JPY | -3.6% | 10,141 JPY | 7,432 JPY | -0.65 | -13.96 | 1.8M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 10,512 JPY | -9.7% | 10,080 JPY | 7,401 JPY | -0.39 | -11.85 | 1.1M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 11,640 JPY | 0.6% | 10,007 JPY | 7,366 JPY | -0.20 | -2.20 | 5.9M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 11,575 JPY | 3.7% | 9,896 JPY | 7,323 JPY | -0.06 | 1.69 | 5.7M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 11,163 JPY | 1.9% | 9,784 JPY | 7,281 JPY | -0.06 | 1.22 | 4.2M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 10,954 JPY | -1.7% | 9,681 JPY | 7,239 JPY | 0.02 | -2.64 | 3.9M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.