- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 60.70% based on similar historical setup states.
ORC
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Orchid Island Capital Inc. · Real Estate · Reit - Mortgage
Latest close
6.54 USD
-4.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 32.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.5%, after a -4.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 54/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 84d.
Setup score
45
out of 100
Latest Close
6.54 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-4.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
-4.5%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-4.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
59.6%
31 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.1x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move -4.5%.
Indicator stack
33/57
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 60.70%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
54/100 conviction; expected move 16.7%.
News sentiment
58/100
53 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
84d
Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 32.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.5%, after a -4.5% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3612-week average 0.35
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.36Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -4.5% over four weeks, -4.9% over 12 weeks, and 5.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year31
Trend breadth59.6%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.04Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change95.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-9.15Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-130.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 100%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength53/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Value68/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Quality34/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Momentum32/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 69; rank 1 is best.
Growth90/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 5.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.3x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 1.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 81.5% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 81.1% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 21.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 2.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 21.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -56.2% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -35.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 17.2x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
ORC shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.03, expected move of 16.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction54/100
Expected move16.7%
Put/call volume0.03
Insider activity9 / 3
9 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment58/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.
21 positive · 29 neutral · 3 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move16.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-16.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.4%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-5.5%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-4.5%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains1
Modest gains10
Flat weeks0
Modest losses13
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.2% / -2.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Real Estate
4-week rank- / 100
Group average1.4%
Trend breadth66.0%
Trend66.0%active weekly trend signals
MD77.0%positive activity pressure
RS57.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Reit - Mortgage
4-week rank26 / 41
Group average-4.1%
Trend breadth22.0%
Trend22.0%active weekly trend signals
MD51.2%positive activity pressure
RS7.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape45/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 45/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis17/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.36; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 60.70%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 60.70% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors46/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 97; Small Cap Core rank 42 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options36/100ORC shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.03, expected move of 16.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 16.7% Sentiment58/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Revenue Breakdown – BX:45U0 Insiders9 / 39 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 6.54 USD | -4.5% | 6.89 USD | 6.00 USD | -0.04 | -9.15 | 25.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 6.85 USD | 0.6% | 6.89 USD | 6.00 USD | 0.04 | -5.59 | 24.5M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 6.81 USD | -1.6% | 6.89 USD | 6.00 USD | -0.25 | -7.64 | 20.7M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 6.92 USD | 1.0% | 6.87 USD | 5.99 USD | -0.56 | -5.00 | 25.1M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 6.85 USD | 3.7% | 6.87 USD | 5.98 USD | -0.98 | -3.98 | 27.9M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 6.61 USD | 2.8% | 6.86 USD | 5.98 USD | -1.28 | -9.65 | 21.4M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 6.43 USD | -2.0% | 6.85 USD | 5.97 USD | -1.37 | -11.44 | 24.8M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 6.56 USD | -1.9% | 6.86 USD | 5.97 USD | -1.33 | -9.37 | 22.5M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 6.68 USD | 1.8% | 6.86 USD | 5.96 USD | -1.21 | -10.04 | 22.6M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 6.57 USD | -1.5% | 6.85 USD | 5.96 USD | -1.16 | -10.47 | 21.7M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 6.66 USD | -2.7% | 6.86 USD | 5.95 USD | -1.03 | -8.52 | 18.0M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 6.85 USD | -0.4% | 6.85 USD | 5.95 USD | -0.82 | -5.95 | 23.3M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 6.88 USD | 0.4% | 6.83 USD | 5.94 USD | -0.79 | -3.53 | 26.5M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 6.85 USD | 0.1% | 6.81 USD | 5.93 USD | -0.77 | -3.13 | 33.5M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.