AMBP NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

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Latest close 4.78 USD
1.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 71.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.9%, after a 3.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 51/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 60/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 84d.

Setup score 66 out of 100
Latest Close 4.78 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 1.9% latest completed week
4W Return 3.7% short-term follow-through
12W Return 24.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 63.5% 33 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 4-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 3.7%. Indicator stack 49/87 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 51/100 conviction; expected move 9.9%. News sentiment 60/100 53 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 84d Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 71.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.9%, after a 3.7% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6212-week average 0.39

12-week confirmation

Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure5/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.62Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 3.7% over four weeks, 24.3% over 12 weeks, and 41.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 4 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.9%
4W3.7%
12W24.3%
26W13.8%
52W41.0%
Active trend streak4 weeks
Active weeks in one year33
Trend breadth63.5%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.15Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change201.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership13.01Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change24.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 94%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength74/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Value69/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Quality24/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 77; rank 1 is best.
Momentum83/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Growth74/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework19/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
69.7x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
9.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
9.9%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
10.9%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
4.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
11.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
7.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
14.5%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
485.7%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
11.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
6.3%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
10.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
16.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
5.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

AMBP shows volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.17, expected move of 9.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction51/100
Expected move9.9%
Put/call volume0.17
Pressure82
Speculation15
Volatility95
Trend agreement14
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment60/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

28 positive · 21 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-12.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.2%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-7.1%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+1.9%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.4% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape63/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 63/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis42/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 5/12, relative leadership 6/12.

Activity pressure 0.62; 2 reversal markers Factors61/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 5; Small Cap Core rank 20 SVQF19/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 819.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options39/100

AMBP shows volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.17, expected move of 9.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 9.9% Sentiment60/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

Ardagh Metal Packaging (NYSE:AMBP) Sees Unusually-High Trading Volume - Here's What Happened Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings84d

Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 20264.78 USD1.9%4.21 USD3.20 USD1.1513.0116.2MOn
17 Jul 20264.69 USD1.3%4.18 USD3.18 USD1.1710.6310.3MOn
10 Jul 20264.63 USD-4.1%4.15 USD3.17 USD1.107.419.3MOn
3 Jul 20264.83 USD4.8%4.13 USD3.16 USD0.9813.2812.5MOn
26 Jun 20264.61 USD6.2%4.09 USD3.14 USD0.3810.4313.7MOff
19 Jun 20264.34 USD3.3%4.06 USD3.13 USD-0.161.477.5MOff
12 Jun 20264.20 USD9.2%4.03 USD3.12 USD-0.51-1.0811.2MOff
5 Jun 20263.85 USD-2.2%4.00 USD3.11 USD-0.88-9.115.4MOff
29 May 20263.93 USD-0.2%3.98 USD3.10 USD-0.85-9.605.5MOff
22 May 20263.94 USD2.3%3.96 USD3.10 USD-0.84-8.319.4MOff
15 May 20263.86 USD-1.2%3.95 USD3.09 USD-0.88-9.796.1MOff
8 May 20263.90 USD1.5%3.94 USD3.08 USD-0.84-8.684.1MOff
1 May 20263.85 USD-1.7%3.92 USD3.07 USD-0.78-8.166.3MOn
24 Apr 20263.91 USD-4.5%3.91 USD3.06 USD-0.75-5.776.2MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.