- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
HLLY
NYSE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Holley Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Latest close
2.67 USD
2.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 27.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.3%, after a 11.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 60/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.
Setup score
28
out of 100
Latest Close
2.67 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
2.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
11.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-5.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
55.8%
29 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
2.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 11.3%.
Indicator stack
31/46
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 44.21%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
60/100 conviction; expected move 25.9%.
News sentiment
48/100
66 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
3d
Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 27.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.3%, after a 11.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0312-week average 0.03
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.03Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 11.3% over four weeks, -5.3% over 12 weeks, and 34.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year29
Trend breadth55.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.40Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change44.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-27.12Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change20.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 87%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength74/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Value91/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Quality29/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Momentum35/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Growth8/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework82/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 13.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.5x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.1x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 8.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 42.1% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 13.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 11.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 5.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 1.9% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 147.7% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 5.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
HLLY shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 25.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction60/100
Expected move25.9%
Put/call volume
Insider activity8 / 1
8 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment48/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 66 relevant articles.
15 positive · 35 neutral · 16 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move25.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-40.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+10.9%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-17.6%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+2.3%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses10
Recent vol5.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol10.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew8.4% / -5.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average1.4%
Trend breadth37.0%
Trend37.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS34.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Auto Parts
4-week rank5 / 56
Group average-7.9%
Trend breadth33.9%
Trend33.9%active weekly trend signals
MD39.3%positive activity pressure
RS23.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape23/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 23/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis9/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.03; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 44.21%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 44.21% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors57/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 38; Small Cap Core rank 12 SVQF82/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 185.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options50/100HLLY shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 25.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 25.9% Sentiment48/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 66 relevant articles.
Price to sales forward of Holley Inc. – NYSE:HLLY Insiders8 / 18 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 2.67 USD | 2.3% | 3.15 USD | 3.47 USD | -0.40 | -27.12 | 3.0M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 2.61 USD | -0.4% | 3.20 USD | 3.49 USD | -0.55 | -27.88 | 3.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 2.62 USD | 4.0% | 3.25 USD | 3.51 USD | -0.46 | -28.07 | 5.1M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2.52 USD | 5.0% | 3.30 USD | 3.53 USD | -0.68 | -31.90 | 3.8M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 2.40 USD | -5.1% | 3.36 USD | 3.55 USD | -0.73 | -34.29 | 3.7M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 2.53 USD | 2.0% | 3.42 USD | 3.56 USD | -0.76 | -29.35 | 6.8M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 2.48 USD | -2.7% | 3.48 USD | 3.57 USD | -0.91 | -32.38 | 2.8M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 2.55 USD | -0.8% | 3.53 USD | 3.58 USD | -0.99 | -29.84 | 3.3M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 2.57 USD | -5.9% | 3.57 USD | 3.59 USD | -1.03 | -28.91 | 4.2M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 2.73 USD | 8.8% | 3.61 USD | 3.59 USD | -0.95 | -26.40 | 5.1M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 2.51 USD | -4.9% | 3.61 USD | 3.60 USD | -0.96 | -31.27 | 3.8M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 2.64 USD | -6.4% | 3.63 USD | 3.60 USD | -0.86 | -27.10 | 4.7M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 2.82 USD | -9.0% | 3.63 USD | 3.61 USD | -0.82 | -22.00 | 5.6M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 3.10 USD | -9.1% | 3.64 USD | 3.61 USD | -0.96 | -12.09 | 3.4M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.