Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
484.55
Total Return
384.55%
CAGR
56.82% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.37%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.68 Sortino 5.21
Current Holdings
1108
Transactions
10720 Avg 3056.5/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4806 Stop 41.2% · Warning 58.2% · Other 0.5%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
29
ABT NYSE · Abbott Laboratories
93.27 MD 0.37 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.04 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.15 MD 0.25 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.02 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BBOT NASDAQ · BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics, Inc.
8.32 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.37 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LZ NASDAQ · LegalZoom.com Inc
7.25 MD 0.71 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.48 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
Q NYSE · Qnity Electronics, Inc
143.80 MD 0.79 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.19 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
37
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BCDA NASDAQ · Biocardia Inc
0.91 20% entry drawdown · -23.77%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BLZE NASDAQ · Backblaze Inc
17.60 Reversal Risk Warning · 135.29%
BMAC NYSE · Black Mountain Acquisition Corp
10.60 Ticker inactive / final available close · 0.00%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CLYM NASDAQ · Climb Bio Inc
14.00 Reversal Risk Warning · 227.10%
CVAC NASDAQ · CureVac NV
4.66 Ticker inactive / final available close · 47.47%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
DENN NASDAQ · Dennys Corp
6.25 Ticker inactive / final available close · 51.33%
DWSN NASDAQ · Dawson Geophysical Company
7.57 Reversal Risk Warning · 394.77%
EWTX NASDAQ · Edgewise Therapeutics Inc
45.41 Reversal Risk Warning · 315.08%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
GRCL NASDAQ · Gracell Biotechnologies Inc.
10.25 Ticker inactive / final available close · 107.49%
IRDM NASDAQ · Iridium Communications Inc
50.06 Reversal Risk Warning · 118.07%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
MBX NASDAQ · MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock
61.05 Reversal Risk Warning · 408.75%
MPLT NASDAQ · MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
39.32 Reversal Risk Warning · 36.43%
ODP NASDAQ · ODP Corp
28.00 Ticker inactive / final available close · 57.57%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
PC NASDAQ · Premium Catering (Holdings) Limited
9.40 Ticker inactive / final available close · 41.10%
PTRN NASDAQ · Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock
28.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 81.85%
RCM NASDAQ · R1 RCM Inc
14.31 Ticker inactive / final available close · 28.92%
RLAY NASDAQ · Relay Therapeutics Inc
20.01 Reversal Risk Warning · 566.83%
ROSS NYSE · Ross Acquisition II Corp
11.08 Ticker inactive / final available close · 3.84%
SBFG NASDAQ · SB Financial Group Inc
26.27 Reversal Risk Warning · 94.76%
SLRN NASDAQ · ACELYRIN, INC. Common Stock
2.27 Ticker inactive / final available close · -11.67%
THRD NASDAQ · Third Harmonic Bio Inc.
5.38 Ticker inactive / final available close · 4.06%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
TTRX NASDAQ · Turn Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
9.44 Reversal Risk Warning · 84.02%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%
WKC NYSE · World Kinect Corporation
35.32 Reversal Risk Warning · 71.05%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 631-660 of 1108 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
MKDW NASDAQ · MKDWELL Tech Inc. Ordinary Share
3 Apr 20266.99
11.70
67.38%
Buy
0.04
-
-
MKLY NASDAQ · McKinley Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares
24 Apr 202610.14
10.16
0.20%
Buy
0.34
-
-
MKTW NASDAQ · Marketwise Inc
17 Jan 20259.95
20.16
102.64%
Buy
0.99
-
-
MLAB NASDAQ · Mesa Laboratories Inc
17 Oct 202572.69
95.61
31.52%
Buy
0.12
-
-
MLCO NASDAQ · Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd
16 May 20256.44
5.49
-14.75%
Buy
0.43
-
-
MLR NYSE · Miller Industries Inc
20 Jun 202542.87
48.99
14.27%
Buy
0.18
-
-
MLTX NASDAQ · MoonLake Immunotherapeutics
20 Feb 202618.77
20.36
8.47%
Buy
0.36
-
-
MMI NYSE · Marcus & Millichap Inc
10 Apr 202626.20
30.68
17.10%
Buy
0.24
-
-
MMLP NASDAQ · Martin Midstream Partners LP
27 Mar 20262.50
2.23
-10.63%
Buy
0.17
-
-
MMSI NASDAQ · Merit Medical Systems Inc
26 Jun 202671.73
73.44
2.38%
Buy
0.48
-
-
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10 Jul 202610.15
10.15
New Entry week
Buy
2.48
-
-
MMYT NASDAQ · MakeMyTrip Limited
29 May 202646.74
58.62
25.42%
Buy
0.17
-
-
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
10 Jul 20261.06
1.06
New Entry week
Buy
0.16
-
-
MNDY NASDAQ · Monday.Com Ltd
8 May 202672.07
82.47
14.43%
Buy
0.01
-
-
MNKD NASDAQ · MannKind Corp
29 May 20263.77
4.09
8.49%
Buy
0.06
-
-
MNOV NASDAQ · MediciNova Inc
11 Jul 20251.27
1.39
9.47%
Buy
0.02
-
-
MNRO NASDAQ · Monro Muffler Brake Inc
6 Jun 202515.25
16.81
10.25%
Buy
0.14
-
-
MNTK NASDAQ · Montauk Renewables Inc
22 May 20261.55
1.61
3.87%
Buy
0.36
-
-
MNTN NYSE · MNTN, Inc.
13 Mar 20269.57
10.50
9.72%
Buy
0.08
-
-
MOH NYSE · Molina Healthcare Inc
20 Feb 2026151.00
233.31
54.51%
Buy
0.72
-
-
MOLN NASDAQ · Molecular Partners AG ADR
19 Sep 20253.77
4.02
6.73%
Buy
0.95
-
-
MORN NASDAQ · Morningstar Inc
22 May 2026179.64
165.18
-8.05%
Buy
0.80
-
-
MPT NYSE · Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
26 Jan 20242.67
4.51
68.76%
Buy
0.04
-
-
MQ NASDAQ · Marqeta Inc
28 Feb 202516.72
15.87
-5.08%
Buy
0.29
-
-
MRDN NASDAQ · Meridian Holdings Inc
12 Jun 202614.33
14.08
-1.71%
Buy
1.34
-
-
MRKR NASDAQ · Marker Therapeutics Inc
28 Nov 20251.24
1.51
21.77%
Buy
0.31
-
-
MRM NASDAQ · Medirom Healthcare Technologies Inc
29 May 20261.14
0.99
-13.16%
Buy
0.10
-
-
MRNA NASDAQ · Moderna Inc
23 Jan 202648.71
68.27
40.16%
Buy
1.83
-
-
MRP NYSE · Millrose Properties, Inc.
3 Jul 202628.98
28.37
-2.12%
Buy
0.13
-
-
MRSH NYSE · Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
3 Jul 2026178.54
178.31
-0.13%
Buy
0.33
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 2911-2940 of 10720
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
16 Jan 2026
Exit
GPGI NYSE · GPGI, Inc.
25.11
Reversal Risk Warning
191.37%
Entry 9 Aug 2024 8.62
16 Jan 2026
Exit
GTN-A NYSE · Gray Television Inc
13.26
Reversal Risk Warning
80.70%
Entry 10 May 2024 7.34
16 Jan 2026
Exit
HII NYSE · Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc
422.69
Reversal Risk Warning
110.65%
Entry 28 Mar 2025 200.66
16 Jan 2026
Entry
HQI NASDAQ · Hirequest Inc
10.84
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.69
16 Jan 2026
Entry
HY NYSE · Hyster-Yale Materials Handling Inc
33.16
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.07
16 Jan 2026
Entry
ICHR NASDAQ · Ichor Holdings Ltd
29.78
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.96
16 Jan 2026
Entry
IPAR NASDAQ · Inter Parfums Inc
88.44
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
16 Jan 2026
Entry
IPCX NASDAQ · Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. III Class A Ordinary Shares
10.17
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.17
16 Jan 2026
Exit
IQV NYSE · IQVIA Holdings Inc
237.68
Reversal Risk Warning
50.94%
Entry 27 Jun 2025 157.47
16 Jan 2026
Exit
IVR NYSE · Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc
8.62
Reversal Risk Warning
50.83%
Entry 22 Dec 2023 5.72
16 Jan 2026
Entry
JYNT NASDAQ · The Joint Corp
9.93
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.44
16 Jan 2026
Entry
KNTK NYSE · Kinetik Holdings Inc
37.27
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
16 Jan 2026
Exit
KTOS NASDAQ · Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
130.72
Reversal Risk Warning
260.21%
Entry 2 May 2025 36.29
16 Jan 2026
Entry
LGIH NASDAQ · LGI Homes
53.80
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.37
16 Jan 2026
Entry
LOKV NASDAQ · Live Oak Acquisition Corp. V Class A Ordinary Shares
10.33
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.45
16 Jan 2026
Exit
LPCN NASDAQ · Lipocine Inc
11.13
Reversal Risk Warning
161.88%
Entry 19 Dec 2025 4.25
16 Jan 2026
Entry
LPRO NASDAQ · Open Lending Corp
2.11
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.30
16 Jan 2026
Entry
LVLU NASDAQ · Lulu's Fashion Lounge Holdings Inc
14.50
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.57
16 Jan 2026
Exit
MASK NASDAQ · 3 E Network Technology Group Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares
7.25
20% entry drawdown
-22.17%
Entry 9 Jan 2026 9.32
16 Jan 2026
Entry
MMLP NASDAQ · Martin Midstream Partners LP
2.87
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.18
16 Jan 2026
Entry
MTDR NYSE · Matador Resources Company
42.23
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
16 Jan 2026
Exit
MTVA NASDAQ · MetaVia Inc.
3.11
20% entry drawdown
-66.60%
Entry 12 Dec 2025 9.31
16 Jan 2026
Entry
MX NYSE · MagnaChip Semiconductor
3.03
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.21
16 Jan 2026
Exit
NRGV NYSE · Energy Vault Holdings Inc
5.72
Reversal Risk Warning
248.78%
Entry 22 Aug 2025 1.64
16 Jan 2026
Exit
NRP NYSE · Natural Resource Partners LP
117.31
Reversal Risk Warning
98.11%
Entry 4 Aug 2023 59.21
16 Jan 2026
Entry
NTZ NYSE · Natuzzi SpA
3.01
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.08
16 Jan 2026
Entry
NYC NYSE · New York City REIT Inc
10.22
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.38
16 Jan 2026
Entry
OEC NYSE · Orion Engineered Carbons SA
6.33
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.26
16 Jan 2026
Entry
OMH NASDAQ · Ohmyhome Limited Ordinary Shares
1.56
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.07
16 Jan 2026
Exit
ORC NYSE · Orchid Island Capital Inc.
7.71
Reversal Risk Warning
45.60%
Entry 15 Dec 2023 5.30