LOCO NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Open interactive chart View report data
Latest close 16.46 USD
3.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 21.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 88.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.3%, after a -1.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 34/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 5d.

Setup score 64 out of 100
Latest Close 16.46 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.3% latest completed week
4W Return -1.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return 17.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 59.6% 31 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 29-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.3% Latest completed week; four-week move -1.3%. Indicator stack 78/59 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 34/100 conviction; expected move 11.4%. News sentiment 51/100 48 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 5d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 21.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 88.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.3%, after a -1.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9112-week average 0.91

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.91Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -1.3% over four weeks, 17.6% over 12 weeks, and 57.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 29 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.3%
4W-1.3%
12W17.6%
26W62.5%
52W57.5%
Active trend streak29 weeks
Active weeks in one year31
Trend breadth59.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.63Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-30.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership24.35Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change2.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 90%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength93/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Value80/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Quality71/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 30; rank 1 is best.
Momentum86/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 15; rank 1 is best.
Growth22/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework53/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
16.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.5x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
12.0%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
25.0%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
9.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
17.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
6.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
4.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
15.5%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
46.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
8/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.6%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.7x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

LOCO shows mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 11.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction34/100
Expected move11.4%
Put/call volume
Pressure7
Speculation0
Volatility72
Trend agreement93
Open options detail
Insider activity0 / 13

0 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 48 relevant articles.

11 positive · 31 neutral · 6 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings5dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move11.4%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-5.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+15.6%Week of 13 Mar.
Worst week-7.1%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+3.3%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses3
Recent vol5.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.5% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape65/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 65/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis86/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.91; 2 reversal markers Factors82/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Cornerstone Growth rank 22; Buyback Yield rank 76; Small Cap Core rank 37 SVQF53/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 345.0 of 726 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options58/100

LOCO shows mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 11.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 11.4% Sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 48 relevant articles.

The Lion Fund II plans to sell 4M LOCO shares in open market trades (LOCO) Insiders0 / 13

0 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings5d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202616.46 USD3.3%13.59 USD11.07 USD0.6324.35835.8KOn
24 Jul 202615.93 USD-4.0%13.39 USD11.03 USD0.7121.61909.2KOn
17 Jul 202616.59 USD-0.4%13.22 USD11.00 USD0.9225.161.1MOn
10 Jul 202616.65 USD-0.2%13.03 USD10.96 USD0.8820.98942.3KOn
3 Jul 202616.68 USD-0.8%12.86 USD10.92 USD0.9123.781.4MOn
26 Jun 202616.82 USD4.9%12.68 USD10.87 USD0.7126.242.3MOn
19 Jun 202616.03 USD2.5%12.48 USD10.82 USD0.6815.351.3MOn
12 Jun 202615.64 USD13.2%12.30 USD10.77 USD0.7615.591.5MOn
5 Jun 202613.82 USD-7.1%12.13 USD10.74 USD0.734.721.5MOn
29 May 202614.87 USD5.7%12.02 USD10.71 USD1.017.461.5MOn
22 May 202614.07 USD4.7%11.86 USD10.67 USD0.914.602.1MOn
15 May 202613.44 USD-4.0%11.71 USD10.64 USD0.971.302.1MOn
8 May 202614.00 USD7.1%11.57 USD10.62 USD1.085.252.0MOn
1 May 202613.07 USD-5.6%11.42 USD10.59 USD1.133.781.0MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.