- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
AEO
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
American Eagle Outfitters Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Latest close
17.00 USD
-0.2%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.2%, after a -4.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 44/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 34d.
Setup score
28
out of 100
Latest Close
17.00 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-0.2%
latest completed week
4W Return
-4.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
0.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
53.8%
28 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.2%
Latest completed week; four-week move -4.2%.
Indicator stack
30/47
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Bullish
44/100 conviction; expected move 8.0%.
News sentiment
58/100
65 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
34d
Next report is scheduled for 02 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.2%, after a -4.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1312-week average 0.09
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.13Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -4.2% over four weeks, 0.4% over 12 weeks, and 47.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year28
Trend breadth53.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.07Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-18.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-15.57Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-71.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Jan 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 100%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength83/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Value81/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 20; rank 1 is best.
Quality19/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Momentum86/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 15; rank 1 is best.
Growth75/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework63/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 10.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.5x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 7.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 34.8% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 6.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 6.0% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 8.3% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 6.2% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 42.5% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -52.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.9% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 3.2% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 6.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.0x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
AEO shows bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.38, expected move of 8.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction44/100
Expected move8.0%
Put/call volume0.38
Insider activity14 / 6
14 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment58/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 65 relevant articles.
27 positive · 34 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings34dNext report is scheduled for 02 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-39.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.3%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-24.9%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-0.2%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses9
Recent vol6.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol9.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.4% / -5.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.8%
Trend breadth36.0%
Trend36.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS31.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Apparel Retail
4-week rank17 / 28
Group average2.2%
Trend breadth39.3%
Trend39.3%active weekly trend signals
MD46.4%positive activity pressure
RS39.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape27/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis14/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.13; No reversal markers Factors65/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 17; Small Cap Core rank 19 SVQF63/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 371.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options50/100AEO shows bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.38, expected move of 8.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 8.0% Sentiment58/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 65 relevant articles.
Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in American Eagle Stock? Insiders14 / 614 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings34dNext report is scheduled for 02 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 17.00 USD | -0.2% | 19.45 USD | 17.40 USD | -0.07 | -15.57 | 18.7M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 17.03 USD | 1.3% | 19.76 USD | 17.38 USD | 0.02 | -15.64 | 26.7M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 16.81 USD | 2.9% | 20.11 USD | 17.34 USD | -0.02 | -17.59 | 19.9M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 16.34 USD | -7.9% | 20.38 USD | 17.31 USD | 0.06 | -18.43 | 18.9M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 17.75 USD | 0.4% | 20.60 USD | 17.27 USD | -0.06 | -9.09 | 24.1M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 17.68 USD | -5.2% | 20.68 USD | 17.23 USD | -0.25 | -11.05 | 22.2M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 18.65 USD | 14.3% | 20.70 USD | 17.18 USD | -0.46 | -4.76 | 27.3M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 16.32 USD | 3.3% | 20.66 USD | 17.13 USD | -0.77 | -15.59 | 29.4M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 15.80 USD | -4.4% | 20.68 USD | 17.10 USD | -0.88 | -19.99 | 42.9M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 16.53 USD | 8.1% | 20.70 USD | 17.06 USD | -1.01 | -14.91 | 26.6M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 15.29 USD | -8.3% | 20.70 USD | 17.02 USD | -1.05 | -20.37 | 23.2M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 16.68 USD | -1.5% | 20.68 USD | 16.99 USD | -0.95 | -12.92 | 17.9M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 16.94 USD | -5.4% | 20.60 USD | 16.96 USD | -0.95 | -9.26 | 20.8M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 17.91 USD | -7.8% | 20.59 USD | 16.93 USD | -1.04 | -2.85 | 20.6M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.