FWRG NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

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Latest close 12.85 USD
6.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.0%, after a -1.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 30/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 28 out of 100
Latest Close 12.85 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 6.0% latest completed week
4W Return -1.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return 6.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 7.7% 4 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.9x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 6.0% Latest completed week; four-week move -1.8%. Indicator stack 4/55 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Recent Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 30/100 conviction; expected move 13.2%. News sentiment 54/100 55 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.0%, after a -1.8% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.2712-week average 0.16

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.27Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -1.8% over four weeks, 6.2% over 12 weeks, and -23.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W6.0%
4W-1.8%
12W6.2%
26W-19.6%
52W-23.4%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year4
Trend breadth7.7%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.43Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-30.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-21.02Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change17.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength7/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Value30/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Quality17/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Momentum12/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Growth94/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
42.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
16.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
18.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
2.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
22.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
1.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
20.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
85.7%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
17.4%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
9.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

FWRG shows mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.54, expected move of 13.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction30/100
Expected move13.2%
Put/call volume0.54
Pressure18
Speculation7
Volatility81
Trend agreement50
Open options detail
Insider activity9 / 0

9 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

16 positive · 34 neutral · 5 negative
Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move13.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-34.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+21.7%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-21.7%Week of 27 Feb.
Latest week+6.0%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses3
Sharp losses9
Recent vol8.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.8% / -6.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape25/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 25/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis26/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.27; No reversal markers Factors15/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 73; Small Cap Core rank 42 Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options44/100

FWRG shows mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.54, expected move of 13.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 13.2% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis Insiders9 / 0

9 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202612.85 USD6.0%13.03 USD17.34 USD0.43-21.025.3MOff
24 Jul 202612.12 USD-2.7%13.11 USD17.38 USD0.46-25.813.6MOff
17 Jul 202612.45 USD-0.1%13.24 USD17.42 USD0.68-25.784.5MOff
10 Jul 202612.46 USD-4.8%13.37 USD17.46 USD0.64-29.494.1MOff
3 Jul 202613.09 USD2.7%13.50 USD17.50 USD0.62-25.445.3MOff
26 Jun 202612.74 USD7.9%13.65 USD17.53 USD0.38-27.578.1MOff
19 Jun 202611.81 USD-4.7%13.84 USD17.55 USD0.08-36.444.1MOff
12 Jun 202612.39 USD21.7%14.00 USD17.58 USD-0.08-32.286.3MOff
5 Jun 202610.18 USD-12.5%14.15 USD17.61 USD-0.37-43.566.7MOff
29 May 202611.63 USD1.2%14.39 USD17.65 USD-0.38-39.065.8MOff
22 May 202611.49 USD2.3%14.55 USD17.69 USD-0.41-38.696.2MOff
15 May 202611.23 USD-7.2%14.78 USD17.73 USD-0.44-40.027.6MOff
8 May 202612.10 USD-7.6%15.00 USD17.77 USD-0.43-36.399.3MOff
1 May 202613.09 USD-1.4%15.10 USD17.81 USD-0.63-28.194.8MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.