MTH NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Meritage Corporation · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

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Latest close 70.20 USD
-3.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 0.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 45.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -3.8%, after a -14.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bearish with 51/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100.

Setup score 36 out of 100
Latest Close 70.20 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -3.8% latest completed week
4W Return -14.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 8.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 26.9% 14 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.2x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 5-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -3.8% Latest completed week; four-week move -14.2%. Indicator stack 32/55 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bearish 51/100 conviction; expected move 9.0%. News sentiment 52/100 63 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 29 Jul Latest stored earnings date was 29 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 0.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 45.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -3.8%, after a -14.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5612-week average 0.25

12-week confirmation

Trend active5/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.56Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -14.2% over four weeks, 8.4% over 12 weeks, and 1.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 5 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-3.8%
4W-14.2%
12W8.4%
26W2.4%
52W1.3%
Active trend streak5 weeks
Active weeks in one year14
Trend breadth26.9%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.54Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-59.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-8.35Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-236.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength75/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Value83/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Quality16/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
Momentum66/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 35; rank 1 is best.
Growth2/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
12.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
4.8%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
18.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
8.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
5.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
6.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-10.6%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-46.7%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.5%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
7.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
10.3%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBearish

MTH shows bearish options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 3.78, expected move of 9.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction51/100
Expected move9.0%
Put/call volume3.78
Pressure-59
Speculation41
Volatility70
Trend agreement40
Open options detail
Insider activity7 / 2

7 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.

18 positive · 37 neutral · 8 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings29 JulLatest stored earnings date was 29 Jul 2026.
Options expected move9.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-17.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+12.5%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-10.2%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-3.8%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses5
Recent vol6.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.0% / -4.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape37/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 37/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis45/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 5/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 2/12.

Activity pressure 0.56; No reversal markers Factors59/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 7; Small Cap Core rank 17 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options36/100

MTH shows bearish options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 3.78, expected move of 9.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bearish · Put-side pressure · Expected move 9.0% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.

Meritage Homes Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Insiders7 / 2

7 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings29 Jul

Latest stored earnings date was 29 Jul 2026.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202670.20 USD-3.8%70.04 USD73.64 USD0.54-8.355.1MOn
24 Jul 202672.95 USD-1.6%69.88 USD73.63 USD0.71-4.053.6MOn
17 Jul 202674.17 USD-1.8%69.64 USD73.62 USD1.08-3.185.1MOn
10 Jul 202675.50 USD-7.8%69.36 USD73.57 USD1.21-3.154.5MOn
3 Jul 202681.86 USD-3.9%69.19 USD73.52 USD1.326.113.1MOn
26 Jun 202685.18 USD12.5%68.82 USD73.40 USD1.1412.786.2MOff
19 Jun 202675.73 USD2.4%68.37 USD73.28 USD0.51-1.944.7MOff
12 Jun 202673.96 USD8.9%68.14 USD73.21 USD-0.01-3.425.5MOff
5 Jun 202667.89 USD4.7%67.86 USD73.13 USD-0.61-10.944.9MOff
29 May 202664.82 USD1.6%67.78 USD73.09 USD-0.77-17.292.0MOff
22 May 202663.82 USD8.6%67.83 USD73.04 USD-0.68-17.693.9MOff
15 May 202658.79 USD-9.2%68.03 USD72.99 USD-0.51-23.833.7MOff
8 May 202664.74 USD-1.8%68.37 USD72.97 USD-0.40-16.475.2MOff
1 May 202665.91 USD-4.0%68.38 USD72.94 USD-0.46-13.444.7MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.