MED NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

MEDIFAST INC · Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

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Latest close 9.83 USD
1.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -10.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 10.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.5%, after a -10.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 32/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 2d.

Setup score 17 out of 100
Latest Close 9.83 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 1.5% latest completed week
4W Return -10.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return -21.9% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 19.2% 10 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.5% Latest completed week; four-week move -10.3%. Indicator stack 11/17 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 38.04% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 32/100 conviction; expected move 9.2%. News sentiment 53/100 40 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 2d Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -10.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 10.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.5%, after a -10.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.2812-week average 0.39

12-week confirmation

Trend active5/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.28Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -10.3% over four weeks, -21.9% over 12 weeks, and -28.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.5%
4W-10.3%
12W-21.9%
26W-14.1%
52W-28.5%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year10
Trend breadth19.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.71Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-253.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-22.88Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-33.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 87%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength51/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
Value87/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Quality13/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Momentum11/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Growth12/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
8.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
17.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
70.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-2.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
2.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-4.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-36.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-67.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.4%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-8.7x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

MED shows bullish options pressure with a 32/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.77, expected move of 9.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction32/100
Expected move9.2%
Put/call volume0.77
Pressure24
Speculation7
Volatility91
Trend agreement44
Open options detail
Insider activity10 / 0

10 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 40 relevant articles.

12 positive · 20 neutral · 8 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-34.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher9 of 2617 weeks finished lower.
Best week+15.4%Week of 8 May.
Worst week-10.7%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+1.5%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses6
Recent vol5.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split19/33Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.0% / -3.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape18/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 18/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis40/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 5/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.28; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 38.04%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 38.04% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors40/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Tiny Titans rank 52; Buyback Yield rank 33; Small Cap Core rank 26 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options50/100

MED shows bullish options pressure with a 32/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.77, expected move of 9.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 9.2% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 40 relevant articles.

Medifast Inc (MED) Institutional Confidence Insiders10 / 0

10 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings2d

Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20269.83 USD1.5%11.03 USD25.96 USD-0.71-22.88602.8KOff
24 Jul 20269.68 USD-5.7%11.04 USD26.52 USD-0.42-24.011.0MOff
17 Jul 202610.26 USD-4.3%11.09 USD27.13 USD-0.06-20.86857.7KOff
10 Jul 202610.72 USD-2.2%11.14 USD27.65 USD0.22-19.26695.3KOff
3 Jul 202610.96 USD4.3%11.20 USD28.15 USD0.46-17.15871.9KOff
26 Jun 202610.51 USD-4.8%11.20 USD28.66 USD0.65-19.613.0MOn
19 Jun 202611.04 USD-7.1%11.21 USD29.17 USD0.86-18.25989.9KOn
12 Jun 202611.89 USD-1.7%11.20 USD29.65 USD1.01-12.00665.0KOn
5 Jun 202612.10 USD-3.4%11.18 USD30.08 USD1.17-10.50721.4KOn
29 May 202612.53 USD-0.5%11.18 USD30.49 USD1.35-10.121.1MOn
22 May 202612.59 USD0.9%11.16 USD30.93 USD1.08-9.09805.9KOff
15 May 202612.48 USD-0.9%11.16 USD31.35 USD0.87-9.71883.1KOff
8 May 202612.59 USD15.4%11.17 USD31.83 USD0.69-9.371.6MOff
1 May 202610.91 USD-2.2%11.19 USD32.30 USD0.19-20.09647.3KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.