USAR NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

USA Rare Earth, Inc. · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

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Latest close 14.15 USD
-9.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -29.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 9.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.6%, after a -30.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 39/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 11d.

Setup score 26 out of 100
Latest Close 14.15 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return -9.6% latest completed week
4W Return -30.9% short-term follow-through
12W Return -46.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 59.6% 31 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 61.03% based on similar historical setup states.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -9.6% Latest completed week; four-week move -30.9%. Indicator stack 33/10 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 61.03% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 39/100 conviction; expected move 7.6%. News sentiment 53/100 23 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 11d Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -29.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 9.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.6%, after a -30.9% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5912-week average 0.56

12-week confirmation

Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.59Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -30.9% over four weeks, -46.3% over 12 weeks, and 17.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-9.6%
4W-30.9%
12W-46.3%
26W-42.9%
52W17.7%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year31
Trend breadth59.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.79Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-323.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-31.64Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-785.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 85% Model confidence 81%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength17/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Value28/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
Quality4/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Momentum75/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Growth28/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
10.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
1.0%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
0.4%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-88.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
5.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-164.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
1.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-79.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
2/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-48.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-48.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
6.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

USAR shows bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.43, expected move of 7.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction39/100
Expected move7.6%
Put/call volume0.43
Pressure45
Speculation41
Volatility86
Trend agreement9
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 23 relevant articles.

8 positive · 11 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings11dNext report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move7.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-67.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility11.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+23.5%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-19.8%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week-9.6%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses3
Sharp losses12
Recent vol11.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol15.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew14.1% / -10.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape30/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 30/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis67/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 7/12.

Activity pressure 0.59; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 61.03%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 61.03% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors28/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 96; Small Cap Core rank 82 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options44/100

USAR shows bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.43, expected move of 7.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 7.6% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 23 relevant articles.

USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) Stock Price Down 4.3% Following Analyst Downgrade Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings11d

Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202614.15 USD-9.6%20.14 USD13.55 USD-0.79-31.6451.5MOff
17 Jul 202615.65 USD-15.3%20.12 USD13.53 USD-0.58-25.6349.5MOff
10 Jul 202618.48 USD-3.5%20.06 USD13.49 USD-0.24-16.0345.2MOn
3 Jul 202619.15 USD-6.4%20.01 USD13.46 USD0.05-11.0746.7MOn
26 Jun 202620.47 USD-16.9%19.94 USD13.42 USD0.35-3.5769.7MOn
19 Jun 202624.64 USD12.1%19.71 USD13.38 USD0.7111.4568.1MOn
12 Jun 202621.99 USD-2.1%19.30 USD13.30 USD0.932.8080.9MOn
5 Jun 202622.47 USD-19.8%19.05 USD13.25 USD1.057.8498.1MOn
29 May 202628.01 USD10.7%18.88 USD13.18 USD1.2329.2168.3MOn
22 May 202625.30 USD3.7%18.59 USD13.09 USD1.1021.7387.9MOn
15 May 202624.39 USD-9.5%18.53 USD13.00 USD0.8820.1381.2MOn
8 May 202626.96 USD2.4%18.64 USD12.93 USD0.6233.7696.0MOn
1 May 202626.33 USD20.4%18.83 USD12.83 USD0.1539.53101.3MOff
24 Apr 202621.86 USD9.6%18.82 USD12.74 USD-0.1419.10136.4MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.