- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
NVA
NASDAQ
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Nova Minerals Limited · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Latest close
5.72 USD
29.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is - below the Trend Line and sits at 34.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 29.4%, after a 29.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 33/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 60/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
35
out of 100
Latest Close
5.72 USD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
29.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
29.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
0.0%
0 of 8 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 30.99% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
29.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move 29.7%.
Indicator stack
0/50
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 30.99%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Mixed
33/100 conviction; expected move 35.7%.
News sentiment
60/100
52 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is - below the Trend Line and sits at 34.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 29.4%, after a 29.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0112-week average 0.00
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/8Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/8Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/8Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.01Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 29.7% over four weeks, - over 12 weeks, and - over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.00Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 67%
Model confidence 62%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength49/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 52; rank 1 is best.
Value49/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 52; rank 1 is best.
Quality47/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 54; rank 1 is best.
Momentum49/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 52; rank 1 is best.
Growth49/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 52; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -3.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 23.8% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 461.1% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 80.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -23.1% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -101.7% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -15.4% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -15.4% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.9x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningMixed
NVA shows mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 35.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction33/100
Expected move35.7%
Put/call volume
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment60/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.
20 positive · 31 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move35.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility14.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
19 Jun
17 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher3 of 74 weeks finished lower.
Best week+29.4%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-19.8%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week+29.4%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains1
Flat weeks0
Modest losses1
Sharp losses3
Recent vol14.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol14.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split3/4Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.4% / -8.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Basic Materials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average8.7%
Trend breadth28.0%
Trend28.0%active weekly trend signals
MD25.0%positive activity pressure
RS42.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Other Industrial Metals & Mining
4-week rank2 / 40
Group average3.0%
Trend breadth12.5%
Trend12.5%active weekly trend signals
MD5.0%positive activity pressure
RS22.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape25/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 25/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis5/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/8, activity pressure 0/8, relative leadership 0/8.
Activity pressure 0.01; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 30.99%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 30.99% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors47/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 89; Small Cap Core rank 55 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options54/100NVA shows mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 35.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 35.7% Sentiment60/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.
Nova Minerals Corp Share Price - NVA, RNS News, Articles, Quotes, & Charts (ASX:NVA) Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 5.72 USD | 29.4% | - | 4.84 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.3M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 4.42 USD | -5.6% | - | 4.72 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.2M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 4.68 USD | 7.3% | - | 4.77 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 4.36 USD | -1.1% | - | 4.79 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.9M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 4.41 USD | -7.7% | - | 4.89 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.0M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 4.78 USD | 3.5% | - | 5.05 USD | - | - | 1.2M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 4.62 USD | -19.8% | - | 5.19 USD | - | - | 3.6M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 5.76 USD | - | - | 5.76 USD | - | - | 1.1M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.