- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
CGAU
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Centerra Gold Inc · Basic Materials · Gold
Latest close
16.19 USD
7.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 66.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.3%, after a 0.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 45/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 6d.
Setup score
41
out of 100
Latest Close
16.19 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
7.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
0.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-6.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
86.5%
45 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
7.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 0.0%.
Indicator stack
48/26
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Volatility
45/100 conviction; expected move 14.4%.
News sentiment
52/100
30 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
6d
Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -5.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 66.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 7.3%, after a 0.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3412-week average 0.53
12-week confirmation
Trend active5/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership11/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.34Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 0.0% over four weeks, -6.0% over 12 weeks, and 124.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year45
Trend breadth86.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.31Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-9.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership4.38Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-55.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength99/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Value96/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 5; rank 1 is best.
Quality82/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 19; rank 1 is best.
Momentum96/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 5; rank 1 is best.
Growth78/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework98/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 5.1x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.1x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 2.9x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 26.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 34.9% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 53.6% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 47.0% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 40.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 27.9% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 62.2% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.6% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 3.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
CGAU shows volatility options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.12, expected move of 14.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction45/100
Expected move14.4%
Put/call volume0.12
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
5 positive · 23 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings6dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move14.4%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-23.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+10.4%Week of 27 Feb.
Worst week-13.6%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+7.3%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains9
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses3
Sharp losses9
Recent vol6.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.2% / -5.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Basic Materials
4-week rank29 / 100
Group average-3.2%
Trend breadth28.0%
Trend28.0%active weekly trend signals
MD26.0%positive activity pressure
RS37.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Gold
4-week rank4 / 29
Group average-5.1%
Trend breadth0.0%
Trend0.0%active weekly trend signals
MD3.4%positive activity pressure
RS6.9%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape42/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 42/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis42/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 5/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 11/12.
Activity pressure 0.34; No reversal markers Factors92/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 18; Small Cap Core rank 11 SVQF98/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 16.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options33/100CGAU shows volatility options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.12, expected move of 14.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 14.4% Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings6dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 16.19 USD | 7.3% | 17.21 USD | 8.79 USD | -1.31 | 4.38 | 5.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 15.09 USD | -7.0% | 17.17 USD | 8.72 USD | -1.22 | -2.35 | 6.9M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 16.22 USD | -2.2% | 17.15 USD | 8.66 USD | -1.08 | 4.23 | 7.0M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 16.58 USD | 2.4% | 17.08 USD | 8.60 USD | -1.10 | 9.00 | 6.0M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 16.19 USD | -2.3% | 16.97 USD | 8.53 USD | -1.20 | 9.81 | 7.0M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 16.57 USD | 2.7% | 16.87 USD | 8.46 USD | -1.24 | 10.85 | 10.3M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 16.14 USD | 5.7% | 16.70 USD | 8.39 USD | -1.31 | 10.07 | 10.0M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 15.27 USD | -13.6% | 16.56 USD | 8.32 USD | -1.27 | 5.72 | 5.9M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 17.67 USD | 7.3% | 16.43 USD | 8.26 USD | -1.05 | 20.33 | 5.1M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 16.47 USD | -3.4% | 16.22 USD | 8.18 USD | -1.01 | 15.08 | 6.0M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 17.06 USD | -7.0% | 16.04 USD | 8.10 USD | -0.84 | 21.47 | 6.9M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 18.33 USD | 6.5% | 15.87 USD | 8.03 USD | -0.61 | 32.48 | 10.2M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 17.22 USD | -9.0% | 15.63 USD | 7.95 USD | -0.53 | 28.94 | 9.1M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 18.91 USD | -5.3% | 15.43 USD | 7.88 USD | -0.46 | 44.88 | 7.3M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.