- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 60.55% based on similar historical setup states.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
HMY
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited · Basic Materials · Gold
Latest close
15.87 USD
8.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.3%, after a 2.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 56/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 28d.
Setup score
32
out of 100
Latest Close
15.87 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
8.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
2.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
1.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
63.5%
33 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
8.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 2.2%.
Indicator stack
35/18
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 60.55%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
56/100 conviction; expected move 14.3%.
News sentiment
52/100
61 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
28d
Next report is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.3%, after a 2.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1712-week average 0.15
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.17Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 2.2% over four weeks, 1.7% over 12 weeks, and 15.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year33
Trend breadth63.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.53Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-278.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-15.19Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change6.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 82%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength99/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Value100/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 1; rank 1 is best.
Quality99/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Momentum67/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
Growth97/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 0.4x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.1x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 0.3x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 433.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 38.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 30.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 45.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 54.1% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 63.0% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 104.2% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 90.0% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 8/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.0% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 2.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
HMY shows volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.07, expected move of 14.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction56/100
Expected move14.3%
Put/call volume0.07
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 61 relevant articles.
18 positive · 35 neutral · 8 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings28dNext report is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move14.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-38.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.0%Week of 8 May.
Worst week-22.8%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+8.3%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains9
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses2
Sharp losses11
Recent vol8.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.8% / -8.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Basic Materials
4-week rank22 / 100
Group average-3.2%
Trend breadth28.0%
Trend28.0%active weekly trend signals
MD26.0%positive activity pressure
RS37.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Gold
4-week rank1 / 29
Group average-5.1%
Trend breadth0.0%
Trend0.0%active weekly trend signals
MD3.4%positive activity pressure
RS6.9%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape29/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 29/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis12/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.17; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 60.55%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 60.55% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors91/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 65; Small Cap Core rank 2 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options37/100HMY shows volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.07, expected move of 14.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 14.3% Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 61 relevant articles.
Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY) closes oversubscribed multi-currency loan package Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings28dNext report is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 15.87 USD | 8.3% | 17.56 USD | 11.70 USD | -0.53 | -15.19 | 14.4M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 14.65 USD | -3.0% | 17.74 USD | 11.62 USD | -0.42 | -22.19 | 14.5M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 15.11 USD | -6.1% | 17.93 USD | 11.56 USD | -0.16 | -21.12 | 17.6M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 16.09 USD | 3.6% | 18.09 USD | 11.49 USD | -0.04 | -15.06 | 15.3M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 15.53 USD | -8.7% | 18.19 USD | 11.41 USD | -0.14 | -16.31 | 18.3M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 17.01 USD | 7.3% | 18.31 USD | 11.33 USD | -0.16 | -10.53 | 21.2M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 15.86 USD | 1.0% | 18.29 USD | 11.25 USD | -0.31 | -15.85 | 24.9M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 15.71 USD | -14.0% | 18.33 USD | 11.18 USD | -0.50 | -16.39 | 19.0M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 18.27 USD | 9.0% | 18.34 USD | 11.10 USD | -0.42 | -5.39 | 18.9M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 16.76 USD | 6.7% | 18.27 USD | 11.01 USD | -0.68 | -11.97 | 26.2M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 15.71 USD | -11.7% | 18.28 USD | 10.93 USD | -0.77 | -17.05 | 20.2M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 17.79 USD | 14.0% | 18.41 USD | 10.86 USD | -0.65 | -6.06 | 28.9M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 15.61 USD | -6.9% | 18.42 USD | 10.78 USD | -0.83 | -15.85 | 18.5M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 16.77 USD | -8.5% | 18.49 USD | 10.71 USD | -0.81 | -9.06 | 28.6M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.