Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
483.76
Total Return
383.76%
CAGR
56.75% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.30%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.67 Sortino 5.20
Current Holdings
1117
Transactions
10719 Avg 3056.2/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4801 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.4% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
28
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19 MD 0.14 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.44 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11 MD 1.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
16
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54 20% entry drawdown · -64.86%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78 Reversal Risk Warning · 52.99%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 61-90 of 1117 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
AMPH NASDAQ · Amphastar P
26 Jun 202621.78
18.72
-14.05%
Buy
0.46
-
-
AMPL NASDAQ · Amplitude Inc
22 May 20266.70
9.18
37.01%
Buy
0.34
-
-
AMPY NYSE · Amplify Energy Corp
13 Jun 20253.56
3.94
10.67%
Buy
0.03
-
-
AMR NYSE · Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc
19 Sep 2025166.10
146.69
-11.69%
Buy
1.61
-
-
AMRC NYSE · Ameresco Inc
6 Jun 202515.51
24.94
60.80%
Buy
0.49
-
-
AMRN NASDAQ · Amarin Corporation PLC
23 May 202511.11
14.88
33.93%
Buy
0.02
-
-
AMSF NASDAQ · AMERISAFE Inc
19 Jun 202631.32
34.46
10.03%
Buy
0.17
-
-
AMST NASDAQ · Amesite Operating Co
12 Jun 20261.26
1.14
-9.52%
Buy
0.28
-
-
AMWL NYSE · American Well Corp
8 May 20267.97
9.91
24.34%
Buy
1.34
-
-
ANF NYSE · Abercrombie & Fitch Company
6 Jun 202582.99
93.07
12.15%
Buy
0.22
-
-
ANGI NASDAQ · ANGI Homeservices Inc
3 Jul 20266.06
6.24
2.97%
Buy
0.09
-
-
ANIK NASDAQ · Anika Therapeutics Inc
24 Oct 202510.01
15.60
55.84%
Buy
0.89
-
-
ANNX NASDAQ · Annexon Inc
12 Sep 20252.42
5.80
139.67%
Buy
0.33
-
-
ANTX NASDAQ · AN2 Therapeutics Inc
6 Mar 20262.85
4.50
57.89%
Buy
0.07
-
-
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
10 Jul 202660.44
60.44
New Entry week
Buy
0.00
-
-
AOUT NASDAQ · American Outdoor Brands Inc
26 Dec 20258.28
14.34
73.19%
Buy
0.41
-
-
APOG NASDAQ · Apogee Enterprises Inc
5 Jun 202637.01
38.82
4.89%
Buy
0.04
-
-
APPF NASDAQ · Appfolio Inc
15 May 2026151.70
175.58
15.74%
Buy
0.02
-
-
APPN NASDAQ · Appian Corp
5 Jun 202624.73
25.36
2.55%
Buy
0.08
-
-
APTV NYSE · Aptiv PLC
6 Jun 202566.64
60.57
-9.11%
Buy
0.17
-
-
APXT NASDAQ · Apex Treasury Corporation
19 Jun 202610.06
10.07
0.10%
Buy
1.12
-
-
APYX NASDAQ · Apyx Medical Inc
13 Jun 20251.75
4.38
150.29%
Buy
0.86
-
-
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
10 Jul 20260.42
0.42
New Entry week
Buy
0.40
-
-
ARCO NYSE · Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc
31 Oct 20257.05
8.46
20.03%
Buy
0.33
-
-
ARCT NASDAQ · Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc
27 Feb 20268.23
6.97
-15.31%
Buy
0.18
-
-
ARDT NYSE · Ardent Health Partners, Inc.
27 Feb 20269.39
10.08
7.35%
Buy
0.14
-
-
ARDX NASDAQ · Ardelyx Inc
18 Jul 20254.41
5.28
19.73%
Buy
0.03
-
-
ARES NYSE · Ares Management LP
22 May 2026122.41
121.81
-0.49%
Buy
0.24
-
-
ARHS NASDAQ · Arhaus Inc
26 Jun 20268.41
7.86
-6.54%
Buy
0.42
-
-
ARKR NASDAQ · Ark Restaurants Corp
2 Jan 20266.61
5.85
-11.50%
Buy
0.11
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1141-1170 of 10719
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
22 May 2026
Entry
SGRP NASDAQ · SPAR Group Inc
0.72
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.46
22 May 2026
Entry
SIMAU NASDAQ · SIM Acquisition Corp. I Unit
13.01
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.94
22 May 2026
Exit
SKYT NASDAQ · Skywater Technology Inc
37.21
Reversal Risk Warning
313.44%
Entry 23 May 2025 9.00
22 May 2026
Entry
STUB NYSE · StubHub Holdings, Inc.
9.98
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.18
22 May 2026
Exit
SYNA NASDAQ · Synaptics Incorporated
143.69
Reversal Risk Warning
129.68%
Entry 6 Jun 2025 62.56
22 May 2026
Entry
TTRX NASDAQ · Turn Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
5.13
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.76
22 May 2026
Exit
TX NYSE · Ternium SA ADR
46.99
Reversal Risk Warning
68.11%
Entry 7 Mar 2025 27.95
22 May 2026
Exit
TXN NASDAQ · Texas Instruments Incorporated
309.21
Reversal Risk Warning
97.00%
Entry 15 Dec 2023 156.96
22 May 2026
Entry
USNA NYSE · USANA Health Sciences Inc
18.74
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.04
22 May 2026
Exit
VACH NASDAQ · Voyager Acquisition Corp
9.60
20% entry drawdown
-25.58%
Entry 27 Mar 2026 12.90
22 May 2026
Exit
VISN NASDAQ · CommScope Holding Company, Inc.
12.30
Reversal Risk Warning
359.46%
Entry 27 Jun 2025 2.68
22 May 2026
Entry
WALD NASDAQ · Waldencast Acquisition Corp
1.30
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.04
22 May 2026
Entry
WDAY NASDAQ · Workday Inc
128.14
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.14
22 May 2026
Entry
WFCF NASDAQ · Where Food Comes From Inc
12.89
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.43
22 May 2026
Exit
WOLF NYSE · Wolfspeed, Inc.
69.89
Reversal Risk Warning
90.13%
Entry 1 May 2026 36.76
22 May 2026
Entry
YELP NYSE · Yelp Inc
22.39
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.55
22 May 2026
Entry
YIBO NASDAQ · Planet Image International Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
0.97
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.65
15 May 2026
Exit
AAPL NASDAQ · Apple Inc
300.23
Reversal Risk Warning
58.76%
Entry 1 Dec 2023 189.11
15 May 2026
Entry
ACB NASDAQ · Aurora Cannabis Inc
3.32
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.04
15 May 2026
Entry
ACTU NASDAQ · Actuate Therapeutics, Inc. Common stock
2.62
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
15 May 2026
Entry
ACVA NYSE · ACV Auctions Inc.
5.92
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.29
15 May 2026
Entry
ADBE NASDAQ · Adobe Systems Incorporated
247.60
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.06
15 May 2026
Entry
ADXN NASDAQ · Addex Therapeutics Ltd
6.81
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.03
15 May 2026
Entry
AIFU NASDAQ · Fanhua Inc.
46.20
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.33
15 May 2026
Exit
AIZ NYSE · Assurant, Inc.
253.42
Reversal Risk Warning
87.53%
Entry 4 Aug 2023 135.14
15 May 2026
Exit
AMPH NASDAQ · Amphastar P
16.87
20% entry drawdown
-24.59%
Entry 25 Jul 2025 22.37
15 May 2026
Entry
APPF NASDAQ · Appfolio Inc
151.70
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.02
15 May 2026
Exit
ARVN NASDAQ · Arvinas Inc
9.08
20% entry drawdown
-27.85%
Entry 28 Nov 2025 12.59
15 May 2026
Entry
ASRT NASDAQ · Assertio Therapeutics Inc
23.32
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.70
15 May 2026
Exit
ATLX NASDAQ · Atlas Lithium Corporation Common Stock
4.29
20% entry drawdown
-33.59%
Entry 8 May 2026 6.46