Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 17 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
479.75
Total Return
379.75%
CAGR
56.00% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.22%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.65 Sortino 5.16
Current Holdings
1081
Transactions
10781 Avg 3057.2/yr · 254.8/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4850 Stop 41.5% · Warning 58.0% · Other 0.5%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

17 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
18
ADBE NASDAQ · Adobe Systems Incorporated
237.25 MD 0.17 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BL NASDAQ · Blackline Inc
30.29 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BLKB NASDAQ · Blackbaud Inc
32.40 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CDNL NASDAQ · Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. Class A Common Stock
71.23 MD 1.59 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CURV NYSE · Torrid Holdings Inc
2.33 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DFIN NYSE · Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc
49.95 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
EXPO NASDAQ · Exponent Inc
62.88 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
FIS NYSE · Fidelity National Information Services Inc
41.91 MD 0.19 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HCKT NASDAQ · The Hackett Group Inc
10.34 MD 0.19 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ICFI NASDAQ · ICF International Inc
78.86 MD 0.80 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAW NYSE · CS Disco LLC
4.05 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
NRDS NASDAQ · Nerdwallet Inc
9.26 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ONT NYSE · Onterris
20.93 MD 0.36 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OPRX NASDAQ · OPTIMIZERx Corp
6.69 MD 0.86 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PODD NASDAQ · Insulet Corporation
164.06 MD 0.42 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RCEL NASDAQ · Avita Medical Ltd
5.10 MD 0.39 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
UPWK NASDAQ · Upwork Inc
9.06 MD 0.10 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XRAY NASDAQ · Dentsply Sirona Inc
14.05 MD 0.72 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
35
ACB NASDAQ · Aurora Cannabis Inc
2.63 20% entry drawdown · -20.78%
AIFU NASDAQ · Fanhua Inc.
34.52 20% entry drawdown · -25.28%
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
11.01 20% entry drawdown · -20.68%
ALDX NASDAQ · Aldeyra The
1.69 20% entry drawdown · -25.55%
ARCT NASDAQ · Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc
6.05 20% entry drawdown · -26.49%
AWRE NASDAQ · Aware Inc
1.11 20% entry drawdown · -26.97%
BEEM NASDAQ · Beam Global
1.03 20% entry drawdown · -24.82%
BNAI NASDAQ · Brand Engagement Network Inc
11.62 20% entry drawdown · -29.49%
BTBT NASDAQ · Bit Digital Inc
1.40 20% entry drawdown · -29.65%
EIX NYSE · Edison International
77.63 Reversal Risk Warning · 49.97%
EVGO NASDAQ · Evgo Inc
1.68 20% entry drawdown · -20.94%
EVO NASDAQ · Evotec SE ADR
1.96 20% entry drawdown · -27.94%
GENK NASDAQ · GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
1.77 20% entry drawdown · -24.36%
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.05 20% entry drawdown · -28.08%
HUBG NASDAQ · Hub Group Inc
51.22 Reversal Risk Warning · 45.11%
INV NASDAQ · Innventure, Inc.
3.37 20% entry drawdown · -27.37%
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
9.35 20% entry drawdown · -20.29%
LEDS NASDAQ · SemiLEDS Corporation
3.01 Reversal Risk Warning · 67.22%
LONA NASDAQ · LeonaBio, Inc.
7.22 20% entry drawdown · -27.22%
MTEX NASDAQ · Mannatech Incorporated
4.25 20% entry drawdown · -21.59%
OABI NASDAQ · OmniAb Inc.
2.12 20% entry drawdown · -20.00%
OCCI NASDAQ · OFS Credit Company Inc
2.27 20% entry drawdown · -23.83%
PBF NYSE · PBF Energy Inc
62.75 Reversal Risk Warning · 219.84%
PLUG NASDAQ · Plug Power Inc
2.17 20% entry drawdown · -20.80%
PMCB NASDAQ · PharmaCyte Biotech Inc
0.63 20% entry drawdown · -21.31%
PMEC NASDAQ · Primech Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares
0.52 20% entry drawdown · -28.59%
QFIN NASDAQ · 360 Finance Inc
12.73 20% entry drawdown · -20.83%
RPT NYSE · Rithm Property Trust Inc.
10.89 20% entry drawdown · -27.03%
RXRX NASDAQ · Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc
2.95 20% entry drawdown · -22.50%
SNPS NASDAQ · Synopsys Inc
384.28 20% entry drawdown · -25.60%
SORA NASDAQ · Top Win International Limited
1.73 20% entry drawdown · -23.18%
VERU NASDAQ · Veru Inc
2.38 20% entry drawdown · -30.00%
WING NASDAQ · Wingstop Inc
142.33 20% entry drawdown · -20.03%
WW NASDAQ · WW International, Inc. Common Stock
14.57 20% entry drawdown · -21.46%
ZSQR NASDAQ · Z Squared Inc.
5.06 20% entry drawdown · -45.47%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 151-180 of 1081 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
BOX NYSE · Box Inc
8 May 202625.72
30.48
18.51%
Buy
0.36
-
-
BPAC NASDAQ · Bullpen Parlay Acquisition Co
12 Jun 202610.12
10.14
0.20%
Buy
0.59
-
-
BRAG NASDAQ · Bragg Gaming Group Inc
27 Mar 20261.84
1.70
-7.61%
Buy
0.02
-
-
BRCC NYSE · BRC Inc.
24 Apr 20261.16
1.14
-1.72%
Buy
0.62
-
-
BRKR NASDAQ · Bruker Corporation
7 Nov 202539.83
58.23
46.20%
Buy
0.75
-
-
BRO NYSE · Brown & Brown Inc
26 Jun 202664.22
69.35
7.99%
Buy
0.24
-
-
BRSL NYSE · Brightstar Lottery PLC
18 Apr 202512.34
10.74
-12.94%
Buy
0.03
-
-
BSY NASDAQ · Bentley Systems Inc
8 May 202632.69
32.34
-1.08%
Buy
0.01
-
-
BTMD NASDAQ · biote Corp
3 Jul 20262.17
2.43
11.98%
Buy
0.94
-
-
BWIN NASDAQ · The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
3 Apr 202622.35
27.25
21.92%
Buy
0.40
-
-
BZ NASDAQ · Kanzhun Ltd ADR
5 Jun 202614.03
14.91
6.27%
Buy
0.15
-
-
BZFD NASDAQ · BuzzFeed Inc
15 May 20261.49
1.33
-10.74%
Buy
1.36
-
-
BZH NYSE · Beazer Homes USA Inc
23 May 202520.73
32.91
58.76%
Buy
0.20
-
-
BZUN NASDAQ · Baozun Inc
1 Mar 20242.36
2.51
6.36%
Buy
0.08
-
-
CAL NYSE · Caleres Inc
24 Apr 202613.48
11.85
-12.07%
Buy
0.10
-
-
CAPN NASDAQ · Cayson Acquisition Corp Ordinary shares
17 Oct 202510.46
11.10
6.12%
Buy
0.74
-
-
CATO NYSE · Cato Corporation
13 Jun 20253.01
3.21
6.64%
Buy
0.32
-
-
CAVA NYSE · CAVA Group, Inc.
26 Dec 202560.15
68.85
14.46%
Buy
0.07
-
-
CBLL NASDAQ · CeriBell, Inc
7 Nov 202511.98
18.72
56.26%
Buy
0.35
-
-
CBRL NASDAQ · Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
22 May 202632.39
53.61
65.51%
Buy
0.75
-
-
CBT NYSE · Cabot Corporation
9 Jan 202672.01
90.39
25.52%
Buy
0.01
-
-
CBZ NYSE · CBIZ Inc
29 May 202633.20
42.42
27.77%
Buy
0.50
-
-
CC NYSE · Chemours Co
27 Jun 202511.47
17.52
52.79%
Buy
0.27
-
-
CCRN NASDAQ · Cross Country Healthcare Inc
8 May 202613.18
13.24
0.46%
Buy
1.13
-
-
CCXI NASDAQ · Churchill Capital Corp XI
26 Jun 202613.86
14.47
4.40%
Buy
0.47
-
-
CDNL NASDAQ · Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. Class A Common Stock
17 Jul 202671.23
71.23
New Entry week
Buy
1.59
-
-
CDW NASDAQ · CDW Corp
22 May 2026110.82
133.24
20.23%
Buy
0.13
-
-
CDXS NASDAQ · Codexis Inc
13 Mar 20261.61
2.24
39.13%
Buy
0.08
-
-
CELH NASDAQ · Celsius Holdings Inc
21 Mar 202532.93
28.99
-11.96%
Buy
1.29
-
-
CERT NASDAQ · Certara Inc
19 Jun 20265.54
6.93
25.09%
Buy
0.37
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 3811-3840 of 10781
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
3 Oct 2025
Exit
BABA NYSE · Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
186.29
Reversal Risk Warning
140.32%
Entry 3 May 2024 77.52
3 Oct 2025
Entry
BFLY NYSE · Butterfly Network Inc
2.33
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.56
3 Oct 2025
Entry
BGDE NASDAQ · Big Digital Energy, Inc.
15.44
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.83
3 Oct 2025
Exit
CD NASDAQ · Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.
29.41
Reversal Risk Warning
426.12%
Entry 5 Sep 2025 5.59
3 Oct 2025
Exit
CLPT NASDAQ · Clearpoint Neuro Inc
27.38
Reversal Risk Warning
208.33%
Entry 9 Aug 2024 8.88
3 Oct 2025
Entry
CNC NYSE · Centene Corp
38.70
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.11
3 Oct 2025
Entry
CRBP NASDAQ · Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holding
14.83
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.55
3 Oct 2025
Entry
CTRM NASDAQ · Castor Maritime Inc
2.14
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.06
3 Oct 2025
Entry
CYPH NASDAQ · Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.
0.53
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.87
3 Oct 2025
Entry
DFTX NASDAQ · Definium Therapeutics, Inc.
12.56
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.19
3 Oct 2025
Entry
DLPN NASDAQ · Dolphin Entertainment Inc
1.45
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.71
3 Oct 2025
Entry
DTIL NASDAQ · Precision BioSciences Inc
5.44
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.05
3 Oct 2025
Exit
DXR NASDAQ · Daxor Corporation
13.90
Reversal Risk Warning
56.35%
Entry 27 Sep 2024 8.89
3 Oct 2025
Exit
EA NASDAQ · Electronic Arts Inc
200.12
Reversal Risk Warning
52.74%
Entry 10 Nov 2023 131.03
3 Oct 2025
Entry
ELV NYSE · Elevance Health Inc
345.12
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.10
3 Oct 2025
Entry
EVAX NASDAQ · Evaxion Biotech AS
5.43
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.98
3 Oct 2025
Exit
EVTV NASDAQ · Envirotech Vehicles Inc
1.47
20% entry drawdown
-21.56%
Entry 30 May 2025 1.87
3 Oct 2025
Exit
FBIO NASDAQ · Fortress Biotech Inc
2.75
20% entry drawdown
-25.88%
Entry 5 Sep 2025 3.71
3 Oct 2025
Entry
FNWB NASDAQ · First Northwest Bancorp
7.90
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.41
3 Oct 2025
Exit
GRMN NYSE · Garmin Ltd
253.85
Reversal Risk Warning
128.25%
Entry 10 Nov 2023 111.21
3 Oct 2025
Entry
GWH NYSE · ESS Tech Inc
1.72
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.15
3 Oct 2025
Exit
HOOD NASDAQ · Robinhood Markets Inc
148.67
Reversal Risk Warning
305.65%
Entry 22 Nov 2024 36.65
3 Oct 2025
Entry
INTC NASDAQ · Intel Corporation
36.83
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.68
3 Oct 2025
Entry
INTS NASDAQ · Intensity Therapeutics, Inc. Common stock
7.00
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.57
3 Oct 2025
Exit
ITIC NASDAQ · Investors Title Company
263.72
Reversal Risk Warning
89.88%
Entry 1 Dec 2023 138.89
3 Oct 2025
Exit
J NYSE · Jacobs Solutions Inc.
153.35
Reversal Risk Warning
40.77%
Entry 11 Aug 2023 108.94
3 Oct 2025
Entry
LAR NYSE · Lithium Argentina AG
4.13
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.48
3 Oct 2025
Exit
LEVI NYSE · Levi Strauss & Co Class A
23.98
Reversal Risk Warning
69.19%
Entry 17 Nov 2023 14.18
3 Oct 2025
Exit
MNPR NASDAQ · Monopar Therapeutics Inc
99.39
Reversal Risk Warning
487.06%
Entry 25 Oct 2024 16.93
3 Oct 2025
Entry
MRVI NASDAQ · Maravai Lifesciences Holdings Inc
3.09
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.31