SWAN HEDGED EQUITY US LARGE CAP ETF
Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.
Background bands show the SM structural read recognized from information available at each completed observation. Trend, Activity and Fair Value are presented together as current and historical context.
The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.
| Regime | Recognized | Last observation | Tenure | Move inside regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upward Expansion | 2026-05-01 | 2026-08-07 | Established | +4.6% |
| Rotation Down | 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-24 | Developing | +6.2% |
| Balance | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-20 | New | -1.1% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-07-11 | 2026-03-06 | Extended | +7.2% |
| Rotation Up | 2025-05-30 | 2025-07-04 | Developing | +4.2% |
| Downward Expansion | 2025-04-18 | 2025-05-23 | Developing | +4.1% |
| Rotation Down | 2025-03-28 | 2025-04-11 | New | -0.2% |
| Balance | 2025-03-07 | 2025-03-21 | New | -1.1% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-02-07 | 2025-02-28 | New | -0.7% |
| Deceleration | 2025-01-10 | 2025-01-31 | New | +2.3% |
| Upward Expansion | 2024-08-30 | 2025-01-03 | Established | +3.6% |
| Deceleration | 2024-08-16 | 2024-08-23 | New | +1.2% |
| Upward Expansion | 2024-05-24 | 2024-08-09 | Developing | +2.0% |
| Deceleration | 2024-05-03 | 2024-05-17 | New | +2.5% |
Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.
The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.
Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.
Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.
Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.
Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.
Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.
Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.
Regime bands repeat the state that was actually recognized at the time.
Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.
Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.
| Outcome horizon | Samples | Median move | Positive periods | Directional follow-through | Median excess vs SPY | Regime survived | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near term | 33 | +0.7%-4.1% to +3.3% | +63.6% | +63.6% | -0.4% | +75.8% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Intermediate | 12 | +3.7%-4.0% to +5.5% | +75.0% | +75.0% | -1.9% | +75.0% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Extended | 7 | +5.2%+0.1% to +9.7% | +100.0% | +100.0% | -3.4% | +71.4% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Full cycle | 3 | +10.8%+6.2% to +19.1% | +100.0% | +100.0% | -8.5% | +66.7% | Too little matched history |
Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.
Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.
Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.
Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.
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