- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 59.19% based on similar historical setup states.
IVR
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc · Real Estate · Reit - Mortgage
Latest close
7.58 USD
-6.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 57.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.4%, after a -4.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 33/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
46
out of 100
Latest Close
7.58 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-6.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
-4.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-6.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
76.9%
40 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.3x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- The latest week was a sharp negative move.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-6.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move -4.3%.
Indicator stack
42/41
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 59.19%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
33/100 conviction; expected move 8.9%.
News sentiment
50/100
70 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
30 Jul
Latest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 57.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.4%, after a -4.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.3x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5312-week average 0.55
12-week confirmation
Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership3/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.53Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -4.3% over four weeks, -6.2% over 12 weeks, and 17.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year40
Trend breadth76.9%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.33Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-34.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.80Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-571.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength35/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Value34/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Quality34/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Momentum70/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Growth19/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 12.6x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.8x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 36.3x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 2.6% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 59.4% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 60.8% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 58.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 2.1% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -25.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 22.5% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 13.4% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 18.7% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -22.1% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -3.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 30.9x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
IVR shows bullish options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.40, expected move of 8.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction33/100
Expected move8.9%
Put/call volume0.40
Insider activity5 / 1
5 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 70 relevant articles.
9 positive · 52 neutral · 9 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings30 JulLatest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
Options expected move8.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-12.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+5.1%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-6.4%Week of 24 Jul.
Latest week-6.4%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains1
Modest gains10
Flat weeks1
Modest losses12
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.6% / -2.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Real Estate
4-week rank- / 100
Group average1.2%
Trend breadth66.0%
Trend66.0%active weekly trend signals
MD77.0%positive activity pressure
RS56.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Reit - Mortgage
4-week rank25 / 41
Group average-4.0%
Trend breadth22.0%
Trend22.0%active weekly trend signals
MD51.2%positive activity pressure
RS7.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape47/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 47/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis31/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 3/12.
Activity pressure 0.53; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 59.19%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 59.19% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors41/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 91; Small Cap Core rank 64 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options41/100IVR shows bullish options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.40, expected move of 8.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 8.9% Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 70 relevant articles.
Earnings call transcript: Invesco Mortgage Capital misses Q2 2026 estimates Insiders5 / 15 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings30 JulLatest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 7.58 USD | -6.4% | 7.88 USD | 6.43 USD | -0.33 | -4.80 | 16.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 8.10 USD | 2.0% | 7.88 USD | 6.43 USD | -0.00 | 1.14 | 14.1M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 7.94 USD | 1.1% | 7.87 USD | 6.42 USD | -0.07 | -2.23 | 10.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 7.85 USD | -0.9% | 7.84 USD | 6.41 USD | -0.12 | -2.01 | 10.8M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 7.92 USD | 0.5% | 7.82 USD | 6.40 USD | -0.24 | 1.02 | 18.0M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 7.88 USD | 0.8% | 7.80 USD | 6.39 USD | -0.53 | -1.80 | 12.9M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 7.82 USD | 1.7% | 7.76 USD | 6.38 USD | -0.66 | -1.61 | 8.2M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 7.69 USD | -0.8% | 7.72 USD | 6.37 USD | -0.73 | -2.66 | 10.5M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 7.75 USD | 1.5% | 7.70 USD | 6.36 USD | -0.55 | -4.34 | 10.1M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 7.64 USD | -1.4% | 7.66 USD | 6.35 USD | -0.42 | -4.38 | 14.2M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 7.74 USD | -3.0% | 7.62 USD | 6.34 USD | -0.38 | -2.21 | 9.4M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 7.98 USD | -1.2% | 7.57 USD | 6.33 USD | -0.31 | 1.05 | 13.8M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 8.08 USD | 1.1% | 7.52 USD | 6.32 USD | -0.45 | 4.67 | 12.0M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 7.99 USD | 0.0% | 7.47 USD | 6.30 USD | -0.61 | 4.64 | 13.7M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.