Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
IVR options intelligence
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 12:49 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
IVR currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
8.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.36
Call-side skew
Trend fit
8
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.6%
RS -16.5
Expected move
8.6%
Put-call volume
0.36
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
2.19
Max pain
7.00
Underlying
6.80
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
160
Research Brief
IVR has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 6.21–7.39; The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00.
Priced range6.21–7.39
Call concentration8.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference7.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 6.21 to 7.39. Max pain at 7.00 sits inside that range, 2.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
6.216.80 ± 0.597.39
Confirmation level
A close beyond 7.39 or below 6.21 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 53/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure53 × 42%
+22.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement8 × 26%
+2.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility90 × 10%
+9.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
1.00-85.3%
2
0
2.00-70.6%
10
3
3.00-55.9%
0
3
4.00-41.2%
0
2
5.00-26.5%
0
13
6.00-11.8%
10
82
7.002.9%
32
19
8.0017.6%
137
1
9.0032.4%
2
4
10.0047.1%
10
0
11.0061.8%
1
0
12.0076.5%
6
0
13.0091.2%
2
0
14.00105.9%
1
0
15.00120.6%
0
0
16.00135.3%
8
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$15,989Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak8.00+$19,809
Negative peak7.00-$4,773
Nearest balance7.19Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-85.3%
-$2
2.00-70.6%
-$2
3.00-55.9%
-$8
4.00-41.2%
-$3
5.00-26.5%
-$52
6.00-11.8%
-$2,611
7.002.9%
-$4,773
8.0017.6%
+$19,809
9.0032.4%
+$3,524
10.0047.1%
+$645
11.0061.8%
+$151
12.0076.5%
-$111
13.0091.2%
-$596
14.00105.9%
+$5
15.00120.6%
-$1
16.00135.3%
+$12
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
2.19
18 Sep
1d
0.40
16 Oct
29d
0.26
20 Nov
64d
0.26
15 Jan
120d
0.27
16 Apr
211d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
6
7
8
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 9 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move0.8%
20 Aug
Bullish · 40
-1.1% through expiry
8.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 38
-1.1% through expiry
6.7% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Volatility · 47
-1.1% through expiry
8.4% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Bullish · 49
-1.1% through expiry
7.0% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bullish · 34
-1.1% through expiry
11.5% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bullish · 33
-1.1% through expiry
8.9% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Volatility · 51
-0.1% through expiry
11.0% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 26
-0.1% through expiry
5.4% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 57
-0.1% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 36
-0.1% through expiry
10.4% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Volatility · 49
-0.1% through expiry
13.0% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 33
-2.4% through expiry
8.9% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 160 / 160
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9,068 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+53
1W price-5.6%
Call premium38%
Put premium62%
Notional split
C 38% / P 62%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
8/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 24 contracts traded, $3,900 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$3,900
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1,350 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$1,350
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 103 contracts traded, $1,303 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$1,303
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $980 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$980
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $942 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$942
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 20 completed sessions
Volume rank45th
Volume/OI rank25th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close6.80
1W-5.6%
RS-16.5
Fair value+5.1%
Options pressure53
Speculation8
Volatility90
Trend fit8
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 20/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 20/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 20/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 20/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 20/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 20/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 20/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 20/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:19
Bullish
Pressure 76
Move 7.3%
30 Jul 11:03
Bearish
Pressure -27
Move 8.6%
30 Jul 15:23
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 9.2%
30 Jul 15:44
Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 9.2%
30 Jul 19:42
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 9.2%
31 Jul 05:37
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 8.9%
3 Aug 11:16
Volatility
Pressure 95
Move 13.0%
4 Aug 11:24
Bullish
Pressure 59
Move 10.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike6.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 32
Puts · V 5 · OI 82
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 137
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV2.19
Put-call1.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.40
Put-call4.33
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.26
Put-call2.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.11
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.09
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.88
Put IV1.09
Skew0.20
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.21
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.10
Put IV0.32
Skew0.21
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.11
Skew-0.05
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.43
Skew0.28
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractIVR270416C00007000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike7.00
Volume66
OI490
IV0.15
ContractIVR270115C00008000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike8.00
Volume37
OI2135
IV0.18
ContractIVR261016P00008000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike8.00
Volume24
OI436
IV0.82
ContractIVR270416P00007000
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike7.00
Volume6
OI630
IV0.56
ContractIVR260918P00007000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.00
Volume5
OI82
IV1.63
ContractIVR270115P00007000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.00
Volume4
OI847
IV0.81
ContractIVR261016C00008000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike8.00
Volume2
OI752
IV0.39
ContractIVR261016C00007000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.00
Volume2
OI57
IV0.16
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.