- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.32% based on similar historical setup states.
COST
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Costco Wholesale Corp · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Latest close
935.0 USD
-0.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 36.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a -1.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bearish with 55/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 56d.
Setup score
42
out of 100
Latest Close
935.0 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-0.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
-1.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-7.6%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
32.7%
17 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move -1.7%.
Indicator stack
18/26
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 58.32%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bearish
55/100 conviction; expected move 4.3%.
News sentiment
54/100
50 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
56d
Next report is scheduled for 24 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 36.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a -1.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4212-week average 0.75
12-week confirmation
Trend active7/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure5/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.42Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -1.7% over four weeks, -7.6% over 12 weeks, and 0.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year17
Trend breadth32.7%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.09Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-59.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-10.38Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change22.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Aug 2025
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 100%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength13/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Value6/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Quality84/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Momentum27/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
Growth75/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 46.9x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.4x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 27.7x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 5.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 12.9% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 4.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 7.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 44.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 9.2% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 12.7% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 20.9% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.7% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.2% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.9% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.9x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBearish
COST shows bearish options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 2.03, expected move of 4.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction55/100
Expected move4.3%
Put/call volume2.03
Insider activity0 / 3
0 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.
18 positive · 25 neutral · 7 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings56dNext report is scheduled for 24 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-14.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.5%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-7.0%Week of 29 May.
Latest week-0.5%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains1
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses10
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.1% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Defensive
4-week rank61 / 100
Group average-0.3%
Trend breadth49.0%
Trend49.0%active weekly trend signals
MD58.0%positive activity pressure
RS33.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Discount Stores
4-week rank3 / 9
Group average-2.9%
Trend breadth33.3%
Trend33.3%active weekly trend signals
MD55.6%positive activity pressure
RS33.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape40/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 40/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis37/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 7/12, activity pressure 5/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.42; 1 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.32%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.32% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors32/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Cornerstone Growth rank 71; Buyback Yield rank 39 SVQF33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 485.0 of 726 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options51/100COST shows bearish options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 2.03, expected move of 4.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bearish · Put-side pressure · Expected move 4.3% Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.
The Fed Held Rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Here's What That Means for Walmart, Costco, and Target. Insiders0 / 30 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings56dNext report is scheduled for 24 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 935.0 USD | -0.5% | 976.3 USD | 855.7 USD | -1.09 | -10.38 | 8.5M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 939.4 USD | 2.7% | 974.2 USD | 853.2 USD | -0.89 | -11.72 | 12.4M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 914.8 USD | -3.7% | 971.3 USD | 850.6 USD | -0.89 | -17.95 | 12.6M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 950.2 USD | -0.1% | 970.2 USD | 848.1 USD | -0.80 | -13.76 | 11.0M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 951.0 USD | 0.1% | 968.2 USD | 845.3 USD | -0.68 | -13.41 | 17.5M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 950.0 USD | -3.3% | 966.9 USD | 842.5 USD | -0.65 | -17.86 | 9.1M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 982.4 USD | 1.1% | 965.1 USD | 839.6 USD | -0.28 | -13.40 | 9.4M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 971.9 USD | 1.6% | 963.1 USD | 836.6 USD | 0.03 | -12.89 | 12.6M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 956.3 USD | -7.0% | 961.3 USD | 833.5 USD | 0.22 | -18.67 | 15.0M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 1,028 USD | -2.0% | 959.8 USD | 830.6 USD | 0.32 | -10.78 | 11.5M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 1,049 USD | 4.0% | 956.4 USD | 827.1 USD | 0.21 | -8.48 | 9.4M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 1,009 USD | -0.3% | 952.5 USD | 823.4 USD | 0.18 | -12.77 | 9.4M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 1,012 USD | 0.2% | 949.8 USD | 820.1 USD | 0.28 | -8.40 | 8.5M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 1,010 USD | 1.1% | 946.4 USD | 816.7 USD | 0.46 | -7.77 | 7.3M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.